By Larsen Kusick Where do you find the percentage of shorts in the float of a stock? - D. I'm a big believer in the importance of investors knowing all about the short position in a stock before making a purchase. I'm going to answer D's question first, and then explain what the percentage of shorts in the float of a stock is and why it's important. I'm also going to assume that readers know what it means to take a short position in a stock, and understand what it means when I say that a certain number of shares of a stock are being "shorted." (If you need a quick refresher on shorting, or "short-selling," check out Stocks: Shorting.)
Where You Can Find Short Interest Data
You can find data regarding the short position in a stock in a number of places. A good place to start is Nasdaq.com, which provides short interest data for stocks listed on the Nasdaq, as well as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the American Stock Exchange (Amex). The site is particularly helpful because it provides short interest data for each of the past 12 months, so you can see if the short position in a stock has been increasing or decreasing over the past year. However, Nasdaq.com only provides the number of shares shorted each month, as opposed to the "percentage of shorts in the float of a stock" that D. is looking for.
Where You Can Find the 'Percentage of Shorts in the Float of a Stock'
The easiest place to find this information is by putting a ticker into Yahoo! Finance and clicking on the "Key Statistics" link. Scroll down a bit and look at the right column under "Share Statistics" -- here you'll find the most recent data for: * Number of shares shorted * Short ratio * Short position as a percentage of the float * Number of shares shorted during the previous month
The number of shares shorted should be the same as the information from Nasdaq.com.
The short ratio, also referred to as "days to cover," is an expression of how large the total short position is in a stock relative to the average daily volume.
The short position as a percentage of the float is the information that D. is looking for. This percentage expresses the number of shares shorted divided by the "float" (Float Defined float), or number of total shares that are free to be traded by the investing public. f the percentage of shorts in a stock were to hit 100% that would mean that every single available share of a stock had been sold and would have to be bought back before being available to be sold again. (Note: In reality, 100% would be effectively impossible to see, but it is useful to explain this concept.) Motivated Buyers
Anyone who takes a short position in a stock is entering an interesting situation: In order to exit the position, he or she has to "cover" or buy back the shares that are being shorted. So if a stock has a very high percentage of its shares being shorted, it means that there are more investors who need to buy shares at some point, whether the stock goes up or down.
This is interesting because those who have already taken a short position need those who own the stock (or are "long") to sell their shares and push the price lower.
When Good News Is Actually Bad News
If a company comes out with positive news and more investors want to buy a stock -- pushing the price higher -- those with short positions can rack up losses quickly. For this reason, stocks with high short ratios are more prone to a big upward move, called a "short squeeze," in which what would have been a smaller rise in the share price is exacerbated by short covering, as those who are "short a stock" panic and buy back shares to cut their losses. (In November 2006, I wrote about a short squeeze in Crocs (CROX_) -- A Tight Fit for Crocs' Shorts.)
Short Percentages in 'Safer' Stocks
Large-cap blue-chip stocks tend to have an extremely low short position relative to their float. This is due to a number of factors, including the sheer amount of stock that is being held my mutual funds and other institutions, as well as the simple fact that anyone looking for a stock that could go down significantly will generally not be interested in these stocks, which are safer and significantly correlated to the broad economy. Think of it this way: If something were to happen to push General Electric down 10% or more, there are much more risky stocks out there that would go down a lot more on that day. Here are some well-known blue chips and the recent short position as a percentage of the float: 'Safer' Stocks and Their Short Positions General Electric (GE) 0.2% Coca-Cola (KO) 0.4% Anheuser Busch (BUD) 0.6% Wal-Mart (WMT) 0.7% Microsoft (MSFT) 0.9% McDonald's (MCD) 1.2% Google (GOOG) 1.6% Short Percentages in 'Riskier' Stocks
You'll find higher short percentages in riskier stocks. There are a number of reasons for an investor or trader to take a big short position in a stock. Some may think a stock has gone up too much and is set for a fall, while others may see a struggling company with a falling stock and are willing to bet that it will go down further. Some simply believe that the valuation for a stock is too high, while some are predicting an earnings shortfall in the near future.
There's no "typical" percentage for investors to compare a stock to, but the list below shows a number of companies, some good and some bad, and the recent short position as a percentage of the float:
'Riskier' Stocks and Their Short Positions Amgen (AMGN) 2.4% Marvell Technology (MRVL) 3.9% Akamai (AKAM) 5.9% Whole Foods (WFMI) 7.5% XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) 9.7% Ford (F) 10.2% Amazon.com (AMZN) 14.9% Palm (PALM) 18.6% Under Armour (UA) 28.0% NutriSystem (NTRI) 33.2% Crocs (CROX) 35.2%
思考:1. While he was lying on the couch, the boy fell asleep. (這男孩躺在沙發上時,睡著了。)
可以減化成:
2. While lying on the couch, the boy fell asleep. (這男孩躺在沙發上時,睡著了。)
更可再減化成:
3. Lying on the couch, the boy fell asleep.
英語文法學者(譬如Azar Shrampfar所寫的Understanding and Using English Grammar)都把第二句視為是第一句的「子句簡化」(reduced clauses),這點沒錯。至於第三句則由於「通常」是與第一、二句意義不同的另一種句子,因此並不被文法學者視為是前兩句的「簡化」。
然而國內這位寫「魔法書」的先生則說,「第二句在省略掉While之後,句意仍很清楚,所以2句「減化」成3句是很自然的。」他不了解為什麼「傳統」的文法學者會把 Lying on the couch...這樣的句型稱為「分詞構句」,而認為他自己發明了一個前人所未能見及的文法解釋理論。他說:「了解減化子句的來龍去脈之後,就會了解「分詞構句」一詞實在是多此一舉。lying on the couch本來就是副詞子句While he was lying on the couch的減化,無需用任何特別名稱來表示。」
這位先生之所以會有這樣的誤解,乃是因為他不了解分詞構句的功能–—–這是缺乏寫作經驗....的結果。
所謂「縮減子句」(reduced clauses)乃是寫作者為了修辭的「精簡」而將一些子句的句型「精簡」成片語句型。我們在前面已經向讀者介紹過。此地我們且先來談上面的第三句 Lying on the couch, the boy fell asleep.為什麼不是前面兩句的簡化。
MATING In many fireflies, pairs stay coupled for hours while the male, lower, gives the female a protein package injected with sperm, called a nuptial gift.
Melody Ko/Tufts University
RESEARCHER Sara Lewis is an evolutionary ecologist at Tufts University who studies firefly mating habits.
SPIRALS A coiled nuptial gift may take up a lot of space in a male’s abdomen. Receiving a gift can make a difference in the female’s reproductive success.
A video from Tufts University's Department of Biology on the energy and predation costs of firefly courtship signals.
LINCOLN, Mass. — Sara Lewis is fluent in firefly. On this night she walks through a farm field in eastern Massachusetts, watching the first fireflies of the evening rise into the air and begin to blink on and off. Dr. Lewis, an evolutionary ecologist at Tufts University, points out six species in this meadow, each with its own pattern of flashes.
Along one edge of the meadow are Photinus greeni, with double pulses separated by three seconds of darkness. Near a stream are Photinus ignitus, with a five-second delay between single pulses. And near a forest are Pyractomena angulata, which make Dr. Lewis’s favorite flash pattern. “It’s like a flickering orange rain,” she said.
The fireflies flashing in the air are all males. Down in the grass, Dr. Lewis points out, females are sitting and observing. They look for flash patterns of males of their own species, and sometimes they respond with a single flash of their own, always at a precise interval after the male’s. Dr. Lewis takes out a penlight and clicks it twice, in perfect Photinus greeni. A female Photinus greeni flashes back.
“Most people don’t realize there’s this call and response going on,” Dr. Lewis said. “But it’s very, very easy to talk to fireflies.”
For Dr. Lewis, this meadow is the stage for an invertebrate melodrama, full of passion and yearning, of courtship duets and competitions for affection, of cruel deception and gruesome death. For the past 16 years, Dr. Lewis has been coming to this field to decipher the evolutionary forces at play in this production, as fireflies have struggled to survive and spread their genes to the next generation.
It was on a night much like this one in 1980 when Dr. Lewis first came under the spell of fireflies. She was in graduate school at Duke University, studying coral reef fish. Waiting for a grant to come through for a trip to Belize, she did not have much else to do but sit in her backyard in North Carolina.
“Every evening there was this incredible display of fireflies,” Dr. Lewis said. She eventually started to explore the yard, inspecting the males and females. “What really struck me was that in this one-acre area there were hundreds of males and I could only find two or three females,” she said. “I thought, ‘Man, this is so intense.’ ”
When a lot of males are competing for the chance to mate with females, a species experiences a special kind of evolution. If males have certain traits that make them attractive to females, they will mate more than other males. And that preference may mean that those attractive males can pass down their traits to the next generation. Over thousands of generations, the entire species may be transformed.
Charles Darwin described this process, which he called sexual selection, in 1871, using male displays of antlers and feathers as examples. He did not mention fireflies. In fact, fireflies remained fairly mysterious for another century. It was not until the 1960s that James Lloyd, a University of Florida biologist, deciphered the call and response of several species of North American firefly.
Dr. Lewis, realizing that other firefly mysteries remained to be solved, switched to fireflies from fish in 1984, when she became a postdoctoral researcher at Harvard. She taught herself Dr. Lloyd’s firefly code and then began to investigate firefly mating habits. North American fireflies spend two years underground as larvae, then spend the final two weeks of their lives as adults, flashing, mating and laying eggs. When Dr. Lewis started studying fireflies, scientists could not say whether the females mated once and then laid all their eggs, or mated with many males. “Nobody knew what happened after the lights went out,” Dr. Lewis said.
She searched for mating fireflies in the evening, marked their locations with surveyor’s flags and then revisited them every half-hour through the night. They were still mating at dawn.
“It was cool to watch the sun rise and see the couples breaking up and the females crawling down the grass to lay their eggs,” Dr. Lewis said.
Many Americans are familiar with the kinds of fireflies Dr. Lewis studies, but they represent only a tiny fraction of the 2,000 species worldwide. And there is enormous variation in these insects. “There are some species that produce flashes when they’re adults, and there are some that simply glow as adults,” Dr. Lewis said. “Then there are a whole bunch of species where the adults don’t produce any light at all.”
In recent years scientists have analyzed the DNA of fireflies to figure out how their light has evolved. The common ancestor of today’s fireflies probably produced light only when they were larvae. All firefly larvae still glow today, as a warning to would-be predators. The larvae produce bitter chemicals that make them an unpleasant meal.
As adults, the earliest fireflies probably communicated with chemical signals, the way some firefly species do today. Only much later did some firefly species gain through evolution the ability to make light as adults. Instead of a warning, the light became a mating call. (An enzyme in the firefly’s tail drives a chemical reaction that makes light.)
The more Dr. Lewis watched firefly courtship, the clearer it became that the females were carefully choosing mates. They start dialogues with up to 10 males in a single evening and can keep several conversations going at once. But a female mates with only one male, typically the one she has responded to the most.
Dr. Lewis wondered if the female fireflies were picking their mates based on variations in the flashes of the males. To test that possibility, she took female fireflies to her lab, where she has computer-controlled light systems that can mimic firefly flashes. “You can play back specific signals to females and see what they respond to,” Dr. Lewis said.
The female fireflies turned out to be remarkably picky. In many cases, a male flash got no response at all. In some species, females preferred faster pulse rates. In others, the females preferred males that made long-lasting pulses.
If females preferred some flashes over others, Dr. Lewis wondered why those preferences had evolved in the first place. One possible explanation was that the signals gave female fireflies a valuable clue about the males. Somehow, mating with males with certain flash patterns allowed females to produce more offspring, which would inherit their preference.
It is possible that females use flashes to figure out which males can offer the best gifts. In many invertebrate species, the males provide females with food to help nourish their eggs. Dr. Lewis and her colleagues discovered that fireflies also made these so-called nuptial gifts — packages of protein they inject with their sperm.
Dr. Lewis is not sure why she and her colleagues were the first to find them. The gifts form coils that can take up a lot of space in a male firefly’s abdomen. “They’re incredibly beautiful,” she said.
Receiving nuptial gifts, Dr. Lewis and her colleagues have shown, can make a huge difference in the reproductive success of a female firefly. “It just about doubles the number of eggs a female can lay in her lifetime,” she said. One reason the effect is so big is that fireflies do not eat during their two-week adulthood. A slowly starving female can use a nuptial gift to build more eggs.
In at least some species, females may use flashes to pick out males with the biggest gifts. Dr. Lewis has tested this hypothesis in two species; in one, males with conspicuous flashes have bigger gifts. In another species, she found no link.
“In some cases they could be honest signals, and in some cases they could be deceptive signals,” Dr. Lewis said.
Deception may, in fact, evolve very easily among fireflies. It turns out that a male firefly does not need to burn many extra calories to make flashes. “It takes some energy, but it’s tiny. It’s less costly for a male than flying around,” Dr. Lewis said.
If making light is so cheap for males, it seems odd that they have not all evolved to be more attractive to females. “What is it that keeps their flashes from getting longer and longer or faster and faster?” Dr. Lewis asked.
Scanning the meadow, she grabbed her insect net and ran after a fast-flying firefly with a triple flash. She caught an animal that may offer the answer to her question. Dr. Lewis dropped the insect into a tube and switched on a headlamp to show her catch. Called Photuris, it is a firefly that eats other fireflies.
“They are really nasty predators,” Dr. Lewis said. Photuris fireflies sometimes stage aerial assaults, picking out other species by their flashes and swooping down to attack. In other cases, they sit on a blade of grass, responding to male fireflies with deceptive flashes. When the males approach, Photuris grabs them.
“They pounce, they bite, they suck blood — all the gory stuff,” Dr. Lewis said. She has found that each Photuris can eat several fireflies in a night. Photuris kills other fireflies only to retrieve bad-tasting chemicals from their bodies, which it uses to protect itself from predators.
To study how Photuris predation affects its firefly prey, Dr. Lewis and her colleagues built sticky traps equipped with lights that mimicked courtship signals of Photuris’s victims. The scientists found that Photuris was more likely to attack when flash rates were faster. In other words, conspicuous flashes — the ones females prefer — also make males more likely to be killed.
“At least where Photuris predators are around,” Dr. Lewis said, “there’s going to be a strong selection for less conspicuous flashes.”