資本迴圈
出自 MBA智库百科(http://wiki.mbalib.com/)
資本迴圈(circuit of capital)
目錄
[隱藏]
* 1 什麼是資本迴圈
* 2 產業資本迴圈的三個階段
* 3 資本迴圈的職能形式及職能
* 4 資本迴圈的條件
* 5 資本迴圈理論對現代企業經營的啟示
[編輯]
什麼是資本迴圈
資本迴圈指產業資本從一定的職能形式出發，順次經過購買、生產、銷售三個階段，分別地採取貨幣資本、生產資本、商品資本三種職能形式，實現了價值的增殖，並回到原來出發點的全過程。這一過程可用公式表示為：
Pm G-W <…P…W′-G′A
[編輯]
產業資本迴圈的三個階段
從上述公式中我們可以看出，產業資本在其迴圈過程中要順次經過三個階段：購買（G-W）、生產（…P…）、銷售（W′-G′）。其中，第一、三兩個階段屬於流通過程，第二階段屬於生產過程。
[編輯]
資本迴圈的職能形式及職能
產業資本迴圈的三種職能形式及其各自的職能在產業資本迴圈的全過程中，產業資本在三個不同的階段需要採取三種不同的職能形式，並執行相應的職能。具體來看：
（1）貨幣資本（G），其職能是購買生產資料和勞動力，為剩餘價值生產準備必要的條件。
（2）生產資本（W），其職能是生產剩餘價值。
（3）商品資本（W′），其職能是實現剩餘價值。
[編輯]
資本迴圈的條件
產業資本迴圈順利進行的必要條件產業資本迴圈要保持連續性，必須具備兩個條件：
第一，空間上的並存性，資本的三種職能形式在空間上同時並存。全部資本必須按一定比例分成三個部分，分別同時存在於三種職能形式上。
第二時間上的繼起性，資本三種職能形式在時間上相互繼起。即分別處在每種職能形式上的資本，都必須相繼進行轉化，依次從一個階段轉向下一個階段，從一種職能形式轉向下一種職能形式，經過迴圈回到它原來的出發點，連續不斷地運動。
[編輯]
資本迴圈理論對現代企業經營的啟示
一、馬克思資本迴圈理論的基本內容
資本只有經過不斷的運動，才能實現增值。資本的迴圈是資本運動最簡單、最基本的形式。在運動的總過程中，資本要實現增值，必須依次經歷購買階段、生產階段和售賣階段三個階段，依次採取貨幣資本、生產資本和商品資本三種職能形式，最後實現價值的增值。
1、資本迴圈的三個階段和三種職能形式
第一階段：購買階段，即資本所有者以購買者的身份出現在市場上，用貨幣購買商品——生產資料和勞動力，為剩餘價值的生產做準備。這一階段用公式表示為：G-W＝A＋Pm，其中，G代表貨幣，W代表商品，A代表勞動力，Pm代表生產資料。
從形式上來看，買者把他的貨幣轉化為商品，而賣者則把他們的商品轉化為貨幣，貨幣執行的是一般商品流通職能。實質上這裡的貨幣同時具有資本的職能。因為資本所有者購買的不是一般的商品，而是生產資本——勞動力是生產剩餘價值的條件，而生產資料是生產剩餘價值的手段。所以，在G-W中，G作為貨幣資本執行著資本的職能，貨幣資本的職能就是購買生產資料和勞動力，為生產剩餘價值做準備。當這一階段完成後，資本運動就進入第二階段，貨幣資本轉化為生產資本。
第二階段：生產階段，即資本所有者以生產組織者身份，把購買的生產資料和勞動力結合起來進行生產，生產出包含剩餘價值的商品，用公式表示為W＝A＋Pm……P……W'，其中，P代表生產，虛線表示流通過程的中斷，W'代表包含剩餘價值的商品資本。
在這裡，生產資料和勞動力不僅發揮著一般生產要素的作用，而且發揮著資本的作用。通過生產過程，資本由生產資本的要素形式變成商品資本形式。這些商品與原有的商品相比，不僅在物質形態上發生變化，而且在價值量上也發生了變化，包含了工人剩餘勞動創造的剩餘價值。所以，這一階段是產業資本全部運動過程中具有決定意義的階段。
第三階段：售賣階段，即資本所有者又以商品出售者的身份回到市場，把新商品銷售出去，收回包含剩餘價值在內的一定數量的貨幣，用公式表示為W'-G'.經過售賣階段，資本不僅發生了從商品形式向貨幣形式的轉化，更重要的是使資本的價值和剩餘價值得到了實現。這個階段是商品資本轉化為貨幣資本的階段，商品資本的職能就是實現價值和剩餘價值。
商品資本能否完成W'-G'過程，對資本的迴圈具有非常重要的作用。因為，在生產過程中，只有完成W'-G'過程，資本家收回貨幣，資本的迴圈過程才能繼續。因此，商品資本要實現自己的職能，必須將它的商品形式全部轉化為貨幣資本形式。也正因如此，馬克思把這一過程稱為“驚險的跳躍”。
由以上可以看到，資本必須依次經過購買、生產、銷售三個階段，分別採取貨幣資本、生產資本和商品資本三種職能形式，不斷地迴圈運動，才能使價值增值，這就是資本迴圈的過程，用公式表示是G-W＝A＋Pm...P...W’-G’(G+g)。其中，購買階段和售賣階段屬於流通領域，生產階段屬於生產領域。可見，產業資本迴圈是生產過程與流通過程的統一。在這個運動中，預付資本的價值不僅保存了，而且它的量也增加了。
2、資本迴圈連續進行的必要條件
產業資本只有在不斷運動中才能實現價值增值。為了不斷地獲得剩餘價值，產業資本不能經過一次迴圈之後終止自己的運動，而必須把這種迴圈運動不停頓地進行下去。因此，產業資本迴圈就是一個無止境的周而複始的運動過程，這一過程可以用公式表示：
Image:资本循环的公式表示.jpg
從這個公式中可以看到，產業資本在不斷迴圈的過程中，它的每一種職能形式都要經過迴圈的三個階段，進行迴圈運動，才能實現價值的增值。要保持資本運動的連續性，就必須使產業資本滿足兩個條件。
（1）空間上並存性。指資本所有者必須按照一定比例把資本分成三個部分，使其同時並存於貨幣資本、生產資本和商品資本三種形式上。如果全部資本都處在生產資本形態上，流通過程就會中斷；如果全部資本都處在貨幣資本和商品資本形態上，生產過程就會中斷。無論流通過程還是生產過程的中斷，都會造成資本運動過程的中斷，而運動一停止，也就停止了價值的增值。
（2）時間上繼起性。指資本必須相繼地通過迴圈的三個階段，即貨幣資本要不斷轉化為生產資本，再轉化為商品資本，最後回到貨幣資本形式上；生產資本要不斷轉化為商品資本，再轉化為貨幣資本，最後又回到生產資本形式上；商品資本要不斷轉化為貨幣資本，再轉化為生產資本，最後又回到商品資本形式上來。如果其中有一個階段中斷，資本迴圈就不能順利進行下去。這樣三種資本形態都依次經過三個階段並依次相繼轉化，就能保證購買、生產和售賣每一個階段上，隨時都有相應的資本在執行職能，從而使資本迴圈不至於中斷。
資本在空間上並存與時間上繼起是互為前提、互為條件。假設預付資本9萬元，平均分配在三種職能形式上，那麼這三種迴圈“連續、併列”的統一性，可用如下的“風扇”圖來描述：
Image:资本循环.jpg
從圖中可以看到，產業資本迴圈中任何一個環節出現問題，再生產就可能中斷，資本運動的連續性就遭到破壞，剩餘價值就難以產生和實現。所以，要保持資本運動的連續性，產業資本的三種形式就必須在空間上並存，必須在時間上繼起。正如馬克思所指出的：“產業資本的連續進行的現實迴圈，不僅是流通和生產過程的統一，而且是它的所有三種迴圈的統一。”
二、資本迴圈理論對現代企業經營的啟示
1、要協調好購、產、銷的關係
社會主義市場經濟條件下，任何資本的目標首先是追求最大限度的利潤，這是搞活企業的關鍵所在。而資本只有不停地運動才能實現價值增值。產業資本要經歷購買、生產、銷售三個階段，這是企業進行經濟活動必須遵循的共同規律，資本迴圈的三個階段和三種職能形式是緊密聯繫、相互依存的。資本只有不斷地從一個階段轉到另一階段，迴圈運動才能順利進行。如果在第一階段發生困難，購買不到生產資料和勞動力，貨幣資本就會成為貯藏貨幣，不能發揮資本職能；如果在第二階段發生停滯，生產無法進行，剩餘價值無法生產出來；如果商品賣不出去，完不成“驚險的跳躍”，受傷的不是商品，肯定是商品生產者，他不能獲得利潤。所以在資本迴圈中每一環節都是重要的，任一環節的中斷都會導致迴圈的中止而不能帶來利潤。
現代企業在生產經營活動中要以市場為導向，按照購、產、銷的思路組織生產，協調好購、產、銷的關係，遵循空間上的並存性和時間上繼起性的原則，讓資本並存於三個階段，不停頓地由一種形式向下一種形式轉換，從而為企業帶來利潤。
2、要合理優化配置資源
馬克思在分析生產資本迴圈時指出，資本家運用生產資本就是根據資本家的意願，使勞動力和生產資料按一定的數量比例和兩者的質量進行結合，這是資本迴圈具有決定意義的階段。現代企業在進行生產活動時也不例外，在生產活動中要合理優化配置資源，購置的生產資料和招收的工人在量上要有恰當的比例，與技術構成相適應。因為如果勞動力多於生產資料的需要量，必然造成人浮於事，冗員增加；如果勞動力少於生產資料的需要量；必然造成開工不足，設備閑置。所以，在勞動力和生產資料的配置上應該符合技術構成，優化配置資源。同時要做到科技進步與科學管理在生產過程中合二為一，建立良好的激勵機制。人是主動資產，在生產中充分調動生產者勞動積極性，能充分發揮資源最大的潛能，從而形成一個良性迴圈。
3、要重視流通環節，加強成本核算
在資本迴圈中，購買原材料和銷售商品處於流通領域，儘管剩餘價值不是在這兩個過程生產，但卻是價值實現的過程。這一過程在企業生產經營中同樣具有重要的意義。現代企業要加速資本的迴圈，就要縮短流通時間、減少流通費用，搞好合同生產。作為世界第四大白色家電製造商、中國電子信息百強企業之首的海爾集團就十分重視流通環節。海爾集團在1998年推出“業務流程再造工程”，從採購和銷售兩個環節入手，將原有的各自採購統一為集團統一採購。僅此一項，在1999 年降低了5億元的採購成本，2001年又在1999年基礎上降低了10億。在買方市場條件下，一般買易賣難，海爾抓住這一特點，減少庫存面積和庫存量，在海爾開發區物流中心，其零配件倉庫庫存面積減少了32萬平方面積，原材料只有不到7天的庫存，成品在24小時內發往各配送中心。所以，海爾呆滯物質降低了 90%，減少了資金積壓。一般企業從接到訂單到組織採購、製造到配送全過程需要36天，海爾集團向速度要效益，只需10天時間，實現與商家之間現款現貨。目前海爾國內應收賬款幾乎為零。
資本迴圈理論告訴我們，一個迴圈的終點又是另一個迴圈的起點。也就是說，沒有消費就沒有生產。現代企業以贏利為目的，而只有商品適銷對路才能贏利。所以，現代企業要把握市場脈搏，選好投資方向，使產品適應市場的需要，這樣才能使商品資本順利地轉化為貨幣。所以，現代企業要重視流通環節，加強成本核算，降低成本，獲得儘可能多的利潤。
三、結論
從以上的分析可以看到，馬克思的資本迴圈理論以產業資本為例，分析了資本要增值，必須不斷運動的特征，同時提出要使資本不斷地運動，就必須滿足空間上並存與時間上繼起的條件。這一理論對於現代企業資本運營有著重要的啟示作用，這就是：現代企業在生產經營中要重視運動的每一環節，加強成本核算，優化配置資源，協調好購、產、銷三環節的關係，使資本處於不斷的運動中，從而不斷地吸收活勞動，以實現價值的增值。
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
2010 Top 10 Wealth Creators and Destroyers
From: http://seekingalpha.com/article/236041-2010-top-10-wealth-creators-and-destroyers?source=yahoo
Now in its third year, the wealth creation index developed by Chief Executive, The Applied Finance Group and Great Numbers!, attempts to identify those business leaders who have performed best in creating true economic value—as opposed to mere accounting value—as measured by GAAP metrics (click here to view complete list of companies and their respective rankings). Creating value is, after all, why CEOs do what they do. The WCI leans heavily on the concept of economic margin (EM). (EM measures the degree to which a company makes money in excess of its risk-adjusted cost of capital.) While there is no single metric that is perfect, EM comes close, in that it isn't dependent on share price in assessing management's impact on value creation. (The rankings do not include REITs among the S&P 500 and only assess companies whose CEO has been in the job for at least three years in order to get a fair appraisal of its actions under varying conditions.
click to enlarge
The past 12 months have not been an easy time to grow—or for companies with high levels of EM to maintain them. The more profitable a company is, the more difficult it is to maintain high levels of profitability when competitors step up and target market leaders. Some companies find that the "easy money"—high margins on a product or market—ultimately dries up. Also, if a business model is successful and a company is making healthy profits, it becomes a target.
Similarly, the regulatory environment can make it difficult for companies to maneuver. Both financial and healthcare companies have become the worst-performing sectors over the last 12 months. Even the well-managed ones struggle with maintaining past success. For example, Mastercard (MA), which led the rankings last year, couldn't maintain its change in EM momentum and slipped to No. 24, still a respectable score. Federated Investors (FII), however, has consistently stayed in the top three since the WCI's inception.
In entering the S&P 500 this year, Priceline.com (PCLN) vaulted to the top of this year's rankings. The company's EM had been dragged down in earlier years, but was consistently high in more recent years. It has also had tremendous success in moving its U.S. business model to international markets, with non-U.S. revenue doubling last year to top U.S. revenue. In addition, Priceline kept its operating costs in check, limiting them to 20 percent of year-on-year growth while pursuing an industry-leading growth in revenues of 27 percent. This allowed the firm to take market share from Expedia (EXPE), another high scorer. Because the company offers a commodity product in a cutthroat industry marked by extreme ease of entry, it's difficult to assess whether Priceline can maintain its high-wire act. CEO Jeffrey Boyd says,
The most important metric we use is gross bookings growth, which refers to the overall value of all the travel products we sell. The Internet and online travel are still in their infancy in many parts of the world. As a global business, our focus is on increasing overall sales and building our market share. We also look to maintain or improve our net operating margins so we can grow profitably. When interim results don't match expectations, our management team evaluates whether it is a supply, marketing or cost issue and makes adjustments accordingly.
As the online travel market grows more saturated it will be more difficult to differentiate. But Priceline enjoys a healthy balance sheet and has slightly less cash than debt, so it gets high marks for managing growth and profitability.
Other stellar wealth creators include Jeffrey Bezos of Amazon (AMZN) and Douglas Baker of Ecolab (ECL), both of whom return to the top 10 from last year, showing that strong execution skills translate into wealth-creating staying power. Daniel Amos of Aflac (AFL), Steve Jobs of Apple (AAPL), Ian Cook of Colgate-Palmolive (CL), John Wiehoff of C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) and Daniel Hambuger of DeVry (DV) return in 2010 among the high scorers. David Yost of Amerisource Bergen (ABC), Theodore Solso of Cummins (CMI), Gregory Johnson of Franklin Resources (BEN), Mark Templeton of Citrix Systems (CTXS), Chris Begley of Hospira (HSP) and James Rohr of PNC Financial (PNC) were among the leaders who advanced at least 100 positions in ranks since 2009.
Less stellar performances were logged by Windstream's (WIN) Jeffrey Gardner, ConAgra's (CAG) Gary Rodkin and FirstEnergy's (FE) Anthony Alexander, who are all among those who dropped more than 100 places since last year.
Ranking CEO Wealth Creation
The top 50 companies in the ranking delivered an average total shareholder return (TSR) of 73.3 percent between January 2007 and June 2010
The ranking focuses on the performance of companies (and their CEOs) in the S&P 500 index for the three years that ended on June 30, 2010. It's based on reported results during that period and estimates for the next 12 months.
CEOs whose tenure did not cover the full three years were not ranked. Also not ranked are the 14 REITs in the 2010 S&P 500 and the companies for which a full three years of financial results were not available.
The four components of the ranking, explained below, were developed and calculated by the Applied Finance Group (AFG), an independent equityresearch advisory firm using proprietary metrics and data. A weighted combination of each company's component rankings is used to produce an overall score: 100 is awarded to the best wealth creator; 1 to the worst. (The list itself casts these scores as a sequential ranking.) The component rankings are shown as letter grades with companies in the top 20 percent of each sector receiving an A; the bottom 20 percent receiving an F.
Market (or Enterprise) Value/Invested Capital (MV/IC)
This measure shows the degree to which investors value the company's assets, relative to their cost. Market value is what a buyer would have to pay to buy the company outright; that is, to purchase all the stock and pay off all the loans, leases and other obligations. Note that market value depends on the stock price. Invested capital is the inflation-adjusted total of all of the investments in the business. It does not depend on the stock price. So by its nature, MV/IC reflects the market's take on the value of the investments made in the business.
The Average of the Past Three Years' Economic Margins
Economic margin (EM) measures the degree to which the company is making money in excess of its risk-adjusted capital cost. It's expressed as a percentage of invested capital. EM is calculated as (operating cash flow - capital charge)/invested capital. Companies with positive EM (greater than 0 percent) are creating wealth; those with negative EM are destroying it.
EM Change
This is a 12-month forecast, based on the ratio of the most recent EM to the three-year average.
Management Quality
This AFG-proprietary measure rewards a company with positive EM for increasing its asset base, and penalizes one with negative EM for growing its asset base. In other words, if a company is making money and it adds assets in such a way that it can make even more, that's good. So is selling off a money-losing division. That said, it's also valid that adding scale can dramatically increase profitability in a business with high fixed costs.
A Validity Check on the Ranking Method
The top 50 companies in the ranking delivered an average total shareholder return (TSR) of 73.3 percent between January 2007 and June 2010 (the period covered in the reported financials). The bottom 50 companies' TSR averaged -3.4 percent, while the S&P 500's average was 14.9 percent (without its 14 REITs). The top 50's median TSR was 33 percent; the bottom 50's was 9.5 percent.
As the table above shows, the top 50 companies in the wealth-creation ranking far outperformed the bottom 50 companies and the S&P 500. Note: Total shareholder return equals share-price return plus reinvested dividends.
Click here to view complete list of companies and their respective rankings
How to Move Up in the Rankings
In publishing this list, Chief Executive aims to show CEOs both where they stand with respect to their peers (awareness being the mother of improvement) and to make clear how to go about improving one's standing. Improvement will require several actions that the company's CEO, division heads and general managers can take:
At the corporate level:
• Use EM to measure wealth creation throughout the company.
• Manage your portfolio of businesses from a wealth-creation perspective. This includes opportunity sensing—entering lucrative or fast-growing businesses, as well as putting businesses making sub-par contributions into other hands or shuttering them. Set the contribution hurdle rate to maximize economic-value creation.
• Ensure that the company's capital structure is right. This affects the capital charge and invested capital. Equity is more expensive than debt, but too much debt can kill a company.
• Avoid overpaying for acquisitions or buying back stock at its peaks.
At the business unit level:
The general managers of businesses need to find the best things they can do to boost operating results. (See "Leading Your Business to Maximum Results" (CE Jan/Feb 2008).
At all levels:
Get all you can out of your assets. Example: large software companies (IBM, Oracle (ORCL) and others) have been acquiring other software firms so that their sales forces, which are major leverageable assets, have more offerings to sell to customers. Include all of your intangible assets, not just intellectual property, in your thinking. Work hard to create and improve customers' feelings about your company and its offerings, the promises your brands represent, your value propositions, etc. (For more, see "The Economic Stimulus Package Inside Every Business," CE Online Jan/Feb 2009, and "Do Intangibles Matter?", CE July/August 2008).
Finally, manage internal and external risks across the company and its aggregate risk-reward profile by taking a wide-angle lens to what could happen.
—Drew Morris
Disclosure: None
About the author: Value Expectations
Now in its third year, the wealth creation index developed by Chief Executive, The Applied Finance Group and Great Numbers!, attempts to identify those business leaders who have performed best in creating true economic value—as opposed to mere accounting value—as measured by GAAP metrics (click here to view complete list of companies and their respective rankings). Creating value is, after all, why CEOs do what they do. The WCI leans heavily on the concept of economic margin (EM). (EM measures the degree to which a company makes money in excess of its risk-adjusted cost of capital.) While there is no single metric that is perfect, EM comes close, in that it isn't dependent on share price in assessing management's impact on value creation. (The rankings do not include REITs among the S&P 500 and only assess companies whose CEO has been in the job for at least three years in order to get a fair appraisal of its actions under varying conditions.
click to enlarge
The past 12 months have not been an easy time to grow—or for companies with high levels of EM to maintain them. The more profitable a company is, the more difficult it is to maintain high levels of profitability when competitors step up and target market leaders. Some companies find that the "easy money"—high margins on a product or market—ultimately dries up. Also, if a business model is successful and a company is making healthy profits, it becomes a target.
Similarly, the regulatory environment can make it difficult for companies to maneuver. Both financial and healthcare companies have become the worst-performing sectors over the last 12 months. Even the well-managed ones struggle with maintaining past success. For example, Mastercard (MA), which led the rankings last year, couldn't maintain its change in EM momentum and slipped to No. 24, still a respectable score. Federated Investors (FII), however, has consistently stayed in the top three since the WCI's inception.
In entering the S&P 500 this year, Priceline.com (PCLN) vaulted to the top of this year's rankings. The company's EM had been dragged down in earlier years, but was consistently high in more recent years. It has also had tremendous success in moving its U.S. business model to international markets, with non-U.S. revenue doubling last year to top U.S. revenue. In addition, Priceline kept its operating costs in check, limiting them to 20 percent of year-on-year growth while pursuing an industry-leading growth in revenues of 27 percent. This allowed the firm to take market share from Expedia (EXPE), another high scorer. Because the company offers a commodity product in a cutthroat industry marked by extreme ease of entry, it's difficult to assess whether Priceline can maintain its high-wire act. CEO Jeffrey Boyd says,
The most important metric we use is gross bookings growth, which refers to the overall value of all the travel products we sell. The Internet and online travel are still in their infancy in many parts of the world. As a global business, our focus is on increasing overall sales and building our market share. We also look to maintain or improve our net operating margins so we can grow profitably. When interim results don't match expectations, our management team evaluates whether it is a supply, marketing or cost issue and makes adjustments accordingly.
As the online travel market grows more saturated it will be more difficult to differentiate. But Priceline enjoys a healthy balance sheet and has slightly less cash than debt, so it gets high marks for managing growth and profitability.
Other stellar wealth creators include Jeffrey Bezos of Amazon (AMZN) and Douglas Baker of Ecolab (ECL), both of whom return to the top 10 from last year, showing that strong execution skills translate into wealth-creating staying power. Daniel Amos of Aflac (AFL), Steve Jobs of Apple (AAPL), Ian Cook of Colgate-Palmolive (CL), John Wiehoff of C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) and Daniel Hambuger of DeVry (DV) return in 2010 among the high scorers. David Yost of Amerisource Bergen (ABC), Theodore Solso of Cummins (CMI), Gregory Johnson of Franklin Resources (BEN), Mark Templeton of Citrix Systems (CTXS), Chris Begley of Hospira (HSP) and James Rohr of PNC Financial (PNC) were among the leaders who advanced at least 100 positions in ranks since 2009.
Less stellar performances were logged by Windstream's (WIN) Jeffrey Gardner, ConAgra's (CAG) Gary Rodkin and FirstEnergy's (FE) Anthony Alexander, who are all among those who dropped more than 100 places since last year.
Ranking CEO Wealth Creation
The top 50 companies in the ranking delivered an average total shareholder return (TSR) of 73.3 percent between January 2007 and June 2010
The ranking focuses on the performance of companies (and their CEOs) in the S&P 500 index for the three years that ended on June 30, 2010. It's based on reported results during that period and estimates for the next 12 months.
CEOs whose tenure did not cover the full three years were not ranked. Also not ranked are the 14 REITs in the 2010 S&P 500 and the companies for which a full three years of financial results were not available.
The four components of the ranking, explained below, were developed and calculated by the Applied Finance Group (AFG), an independent equityresearch advisory firm using proprietary metrics and data. A weighted combination of each company's component rankings is used to produce an overall score: 100 is awarded to the best wealth creator; 1 to the worst. (The list itself casts these scores as a sequential ranking.) The component rankings are shown as letter grades with companies in the top 20 percent of each sector receiving an A; the bottom 20 percent receiving an F.
Market (or Enterprise) Value/Invested Capital (MV/IC)
This measure shows the degree to which investors value the company's assets, relative to their cost. Market value is what a buyer would have to pay to buy the company outright; that is, to purchase all the stock and pay off all the loans, leases and other obligations. Note that market value depends on the stock price. Invested capital is the inflation-adjusted total of all of the investments in the business. It does not depend on the stock price. So by its nature, MV/IC reflects the market's take on the value of the investments made in the business.
The Average of the Past Three Years' Economic Margins
Economic margin (EM) measures the degree to which the company is making money in excess of its risk-adjusted capital cost. It's expressed as a percentage of invested capital. EM is calculated as (operating cash flow - capital charge)/invested capital. Companies with positive EM (greater than 0 percent) are creating wealth; those with negative EM are destroying it.
EM Change
This is a 12-month forecast, based on the ratio of the most recent EM to the three-year average.
Management Quality
This AFG-proprietary measure rewards a company with positive EM for increasing its asset base, and penalizes one with negative EM for growing its asset base. In other words, if a company is making money and it adds assets in such a way that it can make even more, that's good. So is selling off a money-losing division. That said, it's also valid that adding scale can dramatically increase profitability in a business with high fixed costs.
A Validity Check on the Ranking Method
The top 50 companies in the ranking delivered an average total shareholder return (TSR) of 73.3 percent between January 2007 and June 2010 (the period covered in the reported financials). The bottom 50 companies' TSR averaged -3.4 percent, while the S&P 500's average was 14.9 percent (without its 14 REITs). The top 50's median TSR was 33 percent; the bottom 50's was 9.5 percent.
As the table above shows, the top 50 companies in the wealth-creation ranking far outperformed the bottom 50 companies and the S&P 500. Note: Total shareholder return equals share-price return plus reinvested dividends.
Click here to view complete list of companies and their respective rankings
How to Move Up in the Rankings
In publishing this list, Chief Executive aims to show CEOs both where they stand with respect to their peers (awareness being the mother of improvement) and to make clear how to go about improving one's standing. Improvement will require several actions that the company's CEO, division heads and general managers can take:
At the corporate level:
• Use EM to measure wealth creation throughout the company.
• Manage your portfolio of businesses from a wealth-creation perspective. This includes opportunity sensing—entering lucrative or fast-growing businesses, as well as putting businesses making sub-par contributions into other hands or shuttering them. Set the contribution hurdle rate to maximize economic-value creation.
• Ensure that the company's capital structure is right. This affects the capital charge and invested capital. Equity is more expensive than debt, but too much debt can kill a company.
• Avoid overpaying for acquisitions or buying back stock at its peaks.
At the business unit level:
The general managers of businesses need to find the best things they can do to boost operating results. (See "Leading Your Business to Maximum Results" (CE Jan/Feb 2008).
At all levels:
Get all you can out of your assets. Example: large software companies (IBM, Oracle (ORCL) and others) have been acquiring other software firms so that their sales forces, which are major leverageable assets, have more offerings to sell to customers. Include all of your intangible assets, not just intellectual property, in your thinking. Work hard to create and improve customers' feelings about your company and its offerings, the promises your brands represent, your value propositions, etc. (For more, see "The Economic Stimulus Package Inside Every Business," CE Online Jan/Feb 2009, and "Do Intangibles Matter?", CE July/August 2008).
Finally, manage internal and external risks across the company and its aggregate risk-reward profile by taking a wide-angle lens to what could happen.
—Drew Morris
Disclosure: None
About the author: Value Expectations
メロディー(Melody)
あんなにも好きだった
君がいたこの街に
今もまだ大好きな
あの歌は闻こえてるよ
いつも优しくて
少し寂しくて
あのころは何もなくて
それだって楽しくやったよ
メロディ泣きながら・・・
仆たちはしあわせを见つめてたよ
懐かしいこの店の
隅っこに置いてある
寄せ书きの端の方
君と书いたピースマーク
みんな集まって泣いて歌ってたね
あのころは何もなくて
それだだって楽しくやったよ
メロディいつの间に・・・
大切な物无くした
あのころは何もなくて
それだって楽しくやったよ
メロディ泣きながら・・・
远い空流されても
君のこと忘れないよ
いつだって楽しくやったよ
メロディ泣かないで・・・
あの歌は心から闻こえてるよ
夏末的合声 (夏の终わりのハーモニー)
今日のささやきと 昨日の争う声が 二人だけの恋のハーモニー
梦もあこがれも どこか违っているけど それが仆と君のハーモニー
今天的甜言蜜语, 昨日的争争吵吵, 都是二人世界的合声
梦想和憧憬 多少有些不同 但这是我们两个人吧
夜空をたださまようだけ 谁よりもあなたが好きだから
素敌な梦 あこがれを いつまでもずっと忘れずに
了望著夜空 旁徨著星光 我曾经那样爱著你 胜过任何人
即使我俩分开 也请别忘记 属於你的梦想和憧憬 永远永远
今夜のお别れに 最后の二人の歌は 夏の夜を饰るハーモニー
夏夜的合声 就是今晚我们分别前 最后的一首歌
夜空をたださまようだけ 星屑のあいだを揺れながら
二人の梦 あこがれを いつまでも ずっと思い出に
真夏の梦 あこがれを いつまでも ずっと忘れずに
了望著夜空 摇曳在星光碎片之中
我俩曾有的梦和憧憬 都会是宝贵的回忆
真夏的梦和憧憬 也请你 不要忘却 永远永远
翻译：小苏(http://djsu.blogbus.com/logs/29668274.html)
from: http://tieba.baidu.com/f?z=9766038&ct=335544320&lm=0&sc=0&rn=30&tn=baiduPostBrowser&word=%D3%F1%D6%C3%BA%C6%B6%FE&pn=30
井上陽水・安全地帯 (玉置浩二) -
Mr. Lonely
mr.lonely
こんな仆でもやれる事がある
顽张ってだめでなやんで
あせながしてできなくって
ばかなやつだってわらわれたって
泪こらえて
何もないけど
いつでものにさくはなように
君がやさしかったから仆は
げんきでいるから
どんな时にもどんな事にでも
人のきもちになって
この心がいたむなら
むだな事だっていわれたって
かまわないから
何もないけど
なかよくのにさくはなのように
君とくらしていたころを思って
げんきでいるから
むくわれない事が大いだろうけど
愿いをこめて
何もないけど
仆らわのにさくはなのように
风にふかれていたって
いつでもどんな时でも
何もないけど
君のためにのにさくはなのように
远くはなれていたって笑って
げんきでいるから
こんな仆でもやれる事がある
顽张ってだめでなやんで
あせながしてできなくって
ばかなやつだってわらわれたって
泪こらえて
何もないけど
いつでものにさくはなように
君がやさしかったから仆は
げんきでいるから
どんな时にもどんな事にでも
人のきもちになって
この心がいたむなら
むだな事だっていわれたって
かまわないから
何もないけど
なかよくのにさくはなのように
君とくらしていたころを思って
げんきでいるから
むくわれない事が大いだろうけど
愿いをこめて
何もないけど
仆らわのにさくはなのように
风にふかれていたって
いつでもどんな时でも
何もないけど
君のためにのにさくはなのように
远くはなれていたって笑って
げんきでいるから
あなたに
あなたに
Tonight 夜が
あなたをとてもやさしくする
どんなことばも
きこえないほどに
魅せられて
Tonight 热い
吐息が胸をほどいてゆく
ふたりいつでも
なぜ爱しいのに
ふるえてる
あなたは 心の中に
いま 何をみるの
悲しくさせるなら みつめない
あなたの绮丽な瞬きに Goodbye
Tonight 梦は
谁にも话してはいけない
いつかひとりで
眠れない夜に
思いだして
あなたに あげられるのは
もう ぬくもりだけ
ふたりでいるために ひとりきり
こんなにそばにいるというのに
悲しくさせるなら みつめない
あなたの绮丽な瞬きに Goodbye
悲しくさせるなら みつめない
あなたのその绮丽な瞬きに Goodbye
あなたの绮丽な瞬きに Good night
Tonight 夜が
あなたをとてもやさしくする
どんなことばも
きこえないほどに
魅せられて
Tonight 热い
吐息が胸をほどいてゆく
ふたりいつでも
なぜ爱しいのに
ふるえてる
あなたは 心の中に
いま 何をみるの
悲しくさせるなら みつめない
あなたの绮丽な瞬きに Goodbye
Tonight 梦は
谁にも话してはいけない
いつかひとりで
眠れない夜に
思いだして
あなたに あげられるのは
もう ぬくもりだけ
ふたりでいるために ひとりきり
こんなにそばにいるというのに
悲しくさせるなら みつめない
あなたの绮丽な瞬きに Goodbye
悲しくさせるなら みつめない
あなたのその绮丽な瞬きに Goodbye
あなたの绮丽な瞬きに Good night
梦の続き
From: http://tieba.baidu.com/f?kz=9766038
13楼
梦の続き (continuous dream)
梦の続きは こもれび 静（しず）かなあなたの 瞳（ひとみ）
远（とお）くで ピアノ が きこ えてる 青（あお）い
てちょうに はさんだ 真夏（まなつ）の ふたりの 写真（しゃしん）
やさしい 気持（きもち）が 风（かぜ） に なるとき
あなたが いる から いつも 暖（あたた）かい から
大切（たいせつ） なこ とが よく わ かる
夕暮（ゆうぐ）れ 思（おも）い出（で） 禁烟 の ゆびわ 捜（さが）した
あなたに にあった それだけで
あのひ そろい の ぼうし は どんな 町角（まちかど） に いても
一（ひと）つに 広（ひろ）がる 空（そら）を 知（し）って いた
あなたが いるから 今（いま）でも まぶしいから
寂（さみ）しかった 日々（ひび）も 忘（わす）れてく
Refrain 3:
あなたが いるから いつも 暖（あたた）かい から
何（なに）より も やさしく 暮（く）らしたい
Refrain 4:
どれほど 季节（きせつ） が どれほど めぐり来（き）ても
楽（たの）しかった 日々（ひび） を 忘（わす）れない
=============================
夢のつづきは こもれ陽
しずかな貴方の瞳
遠くで ピア-ノが 聞こえてる
あおい 手帖に はさんだ ま夏の二人の しゃしん
優しい 氣持ちが 風になる時
貴方がいるから いつも暖かいから
大切な事が よく分かる
夕暮れ 思い出 記念の指輪 探した
貴方に 似合った それだけで
あの日 そろいの星は
どんな町角に いても 一つに ひろがる空を知っていた
貴方が いるから いまでも まぶしいから
淋しかった 日日を 忘れてく
あなたが いるから いつも暖かいから
何より優しく 暮らしたい
どれほど 季節が どれほど めぐり來ても
樂しかった日日を 忘れない
Monday, November 8, 2010
Priceline Earnings: Likely to Beat Estimates, But May Disappoint on Revenue
Priceline (PCLN) reports earnings Monday after the bell. It has exceeded estimates almost every quarter. It would likely beat the $4.97 per share earnings estimate based on the year ago’s 2nd to 3rd quarter jump as provided in the chart below. (Chart from MSN Money)
click to enlarge
However, the $973.63 million in revenue may be hard to beat or meet based on last year’s 2nd to 3rd quarter as shown in the chart above.
That said, I would carefully watch PCLN. The odds are high that it will beat, but may disappoint on revenue. If it does beat, the stock has averaged a 15% jump in one day. However, even if it does miss, you can buy more shares. It is very likely that the stock will go higher in the long run.
Disclosure: None
==========================================
About Michael Bryant
move to top
move up
move down
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Investor. Mission: Help people make money. Degree: Chemistry from NC State University.
Over the last 9 years, I am 7-2. Over the 7 years, I was up 130%, 29%, 15%, 3%, 19%, 25%, 56% from 2001-2007 respectively. 2008 and 2009 were down years for me, averaging about a 39% annual loss.
I invest in all stocks. I don't agree that US stocks are the safest. Want a safe stock, try TEVA. It did not fall much, or at all, during the credit crisis. And generics are the future.
Anybody can make money. Don't let Wall Street analysts manipulate you. There analysis is good, but don't take everything they say.
Good luck investing, and I will do everything I can to make you money.
Oh, and I ...More invest in rather risky stocks with high potentials. If you are nearing retirement, I don't recommend you copy my portfolio. I will label my stocks with the risk/reward factor. I am adding a watch list with some stocks for retirement investors that I like. All watch list stocks are long term holdings.
Current holdings:
CCME (high risk/high reward)
URRE (high risk/high reward)
Watch list:
LVS (medium risk/high reward)
SAM (medium risk/high reward)
CMG (medium risk/high reward)
ZNH (medium risk/high reward)
RDY (medium risk/high reward)
YZC (low risk/high reward)
CF (low risk/high reward)
QCOR (low risk/high reward)
NVO (low risk/high reward)
BIDU (low risk/high reward)
PCLN (low risk/high reward)
CLF (low risk/medium reward)
AAPL (low risk/medium reward)
GOOG (low risk/medium reward)
TEVA (low risk/medium reward)
CIM (low risk/medium reward) - dividend stock
TNH (low risk/medium reward) - dividend stock
GOL (low risk/medium reward) - dividend stock
SID (low risk/medium reward) - dividend stock
WTU (high risk/high reward) - dividend stock
click to enlarge
However, the $973.63 million in revenue may be hard to beat or meet based on last year’s 2nd to 3rd quarter as shown in the chart above.
That said, I would carefully watch PCLN. The odds are high that it will beat, but may disappoint on revenue. If it does beat, the stock has averaged a 15% jump in one day. However, even if it does miss, you can buy more shares. It is very likely that the stock will go higher in the long run.
Disclosure: None
==========================================
About Michael Bryant
move to top
move up
move down
minimize
Investor. Mission: Help people make money. Degree: Chemistry from NC State University.
Over the last 9 years, I am 7-2. Over the 7 years, I was up 130%, 29%, 15%, 3%, 19%, 25%, 56% from 2001-2007 respectively. 2008 and 2009 were down years for me, averaging about a 39% annual loss.
I invest in all stocks. I don't agree that US stocks are the safest. Want a safe stock, try TEVA. It did not fall much, or at all, during the credit crisis. And generics are the future.
Anybody can make money. Don't let Wall Street analysts manipulate you. There analysis is good, but don't take everything they say.
Good luck investing, and I will do everything I can to make you money.
Oh, and I ...More invest in rather risky stocks with high potentials. If you are nearing retirement, I don't recommend you copy my portfolio. I will label my stocks with the risk/reward factor. I am adding a watch list with some stocks for retirement investors that I like. All watch list stocks are long term holdings.
Current holdings:
CCME (high risk/high reward)
URRE (high risk/high reward)
Watch list:
LVS (medium risk/high reward)
SAM (medium risk/high reward)
CMG (medium risk/high reward)
ZNH (medium risk/high reward)
RDY (medium risk/high reward)
YZC (low risk/high reward)
CF (low risk/high reward)
QCOR (low risk/high reward)
NVO (low risk/high reward)
BIDU (low risk/high reward)
PCLN (low risk/high reward)
CLF (low risk/medium reward)
AAPL (low risk/medium reward)
GOOG (low risk/medium reward)
TEVA (low risk/medium reward)
CIM (low risk/medium reward) - dividend stock
TNH (low risk/medium reward) - dividend stock
GOL (low risk/medium reward) - dividend stock
SID (low risk/medium reward) - dividend stock
WTU (high risk/high reward) - dividend stock
Friday, October 29, 2010
How Do I Find Short Interest for a Stock?
By Larsen Kusick
Where do you find the percentage of shorts in the float of a stock? - D.
I'm a big believer in the importance of investors knowing all about the short position in a stock before making a purchase. I'm going to answer D's question first, and then explain what the percentage of shorts in the float of a stock is and why it's important. I'm also going to assume that readers know what it means to take a short position in a stock, and understand what it means when I say that a certain number of shares of a stock are being "shorted." (If you need a quick refresher on shorting, or "short-selling," check out Stocks: Shorting.)
Where You Can Find Short Interest Data
You can find data regarding the short position in a stock in a number of places. A good place to start is Nasdaq.com, which provides short interest data for stocks listed on the Nasdaq, as well as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the American Stock Exchange (Amex). The site is particularly helpful because it provides short interest data for each of the past 12 months, so you can see if the short position in a stock has been increasing or decreasing over the past year. However, Nasdaq.com only provides the number of shares shorted each month, as opposed to the "percentage of shorts in the float of a stock" that D. is looking for.
Where You Can Find the 'Percentage of Shorts in the Float of a Stock'
The easiest place to find this information is by putting a ticker into Yahoo! Finance and clicking on the "Key Statistics" link. Scroll down a bit and look at the right column under "Share Statistics" -- here you'll find the most recent data for:
* Number of shares shorted
* Short ratio
* Short position as a percentage of the float
* Number of shares shorted during the previous month
The number of shares shorted should be the same as the information from Nasdaq.com.
The short ratio, also referred to as "days to cover," is an expression of how large the total short position is in a stock relative to the average daily volume.
The short position as a percentage of the float is the information that D. is looking for. This percentage expresses the number of shares shorted divided by the "float" (Float Defined float), or number of total shares that are free to be traded by the investing public.
f the percentage of shorts in a stock were to hit 100% that would mean that every single available share of a stock had been sold and would have to be bought back before being available to be sold again. (Note: In reality, 100% would be effectively impossible to see, but it is useful to explain this concept.)
Motivated Buyers
Anyone who takes a short position in a stock is entering an interesting situation: In order to exit the position, he or she has to "cover" or buy back the shares that are being shorted. So if a stock has a very high percentage of its shares being shorted, it means that there are more investors who need to buy shares at some point, whether the stock goes up or down.
This is interesting because those who have already taken a short position need those who own the stock (or are "long") to sell their shares and push the price lower.
When Good News Is Actually Bad News
If a company comes out with positive news and more investors want to buy a stock -- pushing the price higher -- those with short positions can rack up losses quickly. For this reason, stocks with high short ratios are more prone to a big upward move, called a "short squeeze," in which what would have been a smaller rise in the share price is exacerbated by short covering, as those who are "short a stock" panic and buy back shares to cut their losses. (In November 2006, I wrote about a short squeeze in Crocs (CROX_) -- A Tight Fit for Crocs' Shorts.)
Short Percentages in 'Safer' Stocks
Large-cap blue-chip stocks tend to have an extremely low short position relative to their float. This is due to a number of factors, including the sheer amount of stock that is being held my mutual funds and other institutions, as well as the simple fact that anyone looking for a stock that could go down significantly will generally not be interested in these stocks, which are safer and significantly correlated to the broad economy.
Think of it this way: If something were to happen to push General Electric down 10% or more, there are much more risky stocks out there that would go down a lot more on that day. Here are some well-known blue chips and the recent short position as a percentage of the float:
'Safer' Stocks and Their Short Positions
General Electric (GE) 0.2%
Coca-Cola (KO) 0.4%
Anheuser Busch (BUD) 0.6%
Wal-Mart (WMT) 0.7%
Microsoft (MSFT) 0.9%
McDonald's (MCD) 1.2%
Google (GOOG) 1.6%
Short Percentages in 'Riskier' Stocks
You'll find higher short percentages in riskier stocks. There are a number of reasons for an investor or trader to take a big short position in a stock. Some may think a stock has gone up too much and is set for a fall, while others may see a struggling company with a falling stock and are willing to bet that it will go down further. Some simply believe that the valuation for a stock is too high, while some are predicting an earnings shortfall in the near future.
There's no "typical" percentage for investors to compare a stock to, but the list below shows a number of companies, some good and some bad, and the recent short position as a percentage of the float:
'Riskier' Stocks and Their Short Positions
Amgen (AMGN) 2.4%
Marvell Technology (MRVL) 3.9%
Akamai (AKAM) 5.9%
Whole Foods (WFMI) 7.5%
XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) 9.7%
Ford (F) 10.2%
Amazon.com (AMZN) 14.9%
Palm (PALM) 18.6%
Under Armour (UA) 28.0%
NutriSystem (NTRI) 33.2%
Crocs (CROX) 35.2%
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Where do you find the percentage of shorts in the float of a stock? - D.
I'm a big believer in the importance of investors knowing all about the short position in a stock before making a purchase. I'm going to answer D's question first, and then explain what the percentage of shorts in the float of a stock is and why it's important. I'm also going to assume that readers know what it means to take a short position in a stock, and understand what it means when I say that a certain number of shares of a stock are being "shorted." (If you need a quick refresher on shorting, or "short-selling," check out Stocks: Shorting.)
Where You Can Find Short Interest Data
You can find data regarding the short position in a stock in a number of places. A good place to start is Nasdaq.com, which provides short interest data for stocks listed on the Nasdaq, as well as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the American Stock Exchange (Amex). The site is particularly helpful because it provides short interest data for each of the past 12 months, so you can see if the short position in a stock has been increasing or decreasing over the past year. However, Nasdaq.com only provides the number of shares shorted each month, as opposed to the "percentage of shorts in the float of a stock" that D. is looking for.
Where You Can Find the 'Percentage of Shorts in the Float of a Stock'
The easiest place to find this information is by putting a ticker into Yahoo! Finance and clicking on the "Key Statistics" link. Scroll down a bit and look at the right column under "Share Statistics" -- here you'll find the most recent data for:
* Number of shares shorted
* Short ratio
* Short position as a percentage of the float
* Number of shares shorted during the previous month
The number of shares shorted should be the same as the information from Nasdaq.com.
The short ratio, also referred to as "days to cover," is an expression of how large the total short position is in a stock relative to the average daily volume.
The short position as a percentage of the float is the information that D. is looking for. This percentage expresses the number of shares shorted divided by the "float" (Float Defined float), or number of total shares that are free to be traded by the investing public.
f the percentage of shorts in a stock were to hit 100% that would mean that every single available share of a stock had been sold and would have to be bought back before being available to be sold again. (Note: In reality, 100% would be effectively impossible to see, but it is useful to explain this concept.)
Motivated Buyers
Anyone who takes a short position in a stock is entering an interesting situation: In order to exit the position, he or she has to "cover" or buy back the shares that are being shorted. So if a stock has a very high percentage of its shares being shorted, it means that there are more investors who need to buy shares at some point, whether the stock goes up or down.
This is interesting because those who have already taken a short position need those who own the stock (or are "long") to sell their shares and push the price lower.
When Good News Is Actually Bad News
If a company comes out with positive news and more investors want to buy a stock -- pushing the price higher -- those with short positions can rack up losses quickly. For this reason, stocks with high short ratios are more prone to a big upward move, called a "short squeeze," in which what would have been a smaller rise in the share price is exacerbated by short covering, as those who are "short a stock" panic and buy back shares to cut their losses. (In November 2006, I wrote about a short squeeze in Crocs (CROX_) -- A Tight Fit for Crocs' Shorts.)
Short Percentages in 'Safer' Stocks
Large-cap blue-chip stocks tend to have an extremely low short position relative to their float. This is due to a number of factors, including the sheer amount of stock that is being held my mutual funds and other institutions, as well as the simple fact that anyone looking for a stock that could go down significantly will generally not be interested in these stocks, which are safer and significantly correlated to the broad economy.
Think of it this way: If something were to happen to push General Electric down 10% or more, there are much more risky stocks out there that would go down a lot more on that day. Here are some well-known blue chips and the recent short position as a percentage of the float:
'Safer' Stocks and Their Short Positions
General Electric (GE) 0.2%
Coca-Cola (KO) 0.4%
Anheuser Busch (BUD) 0.6%
Wal-Mart (WMT) 0.7%
Microsoft (MSFT) 0.9%
McDonald's (MCD) 1.2%
Google (GOOG) 1.6%
Short Percentages in 'Riskier' Stocks
You'll find higher short percentages in riskier stocks. There are a number of reasons for an investor or trader to take a big short position in a stock. Some may think a stock has gone up too much and is set for a fall, while others may see a struggling company with a falling stock and are willing to bet that it will go down further. Some simply believe that the valuation for a stock is too high, while some are predicting an earnings shortfall in the near future.
There's no "typical" percentage for investors to compare a stock to, but the list below shows a number of companies, some good and some bad, and the recent short position as a percentage of the float:
'Riskier' Stocks and Their Short Positions
Amgen (AMGN) 2.4%
Marvell Technology (MRVL) 3.9%
Akamai (AKAM) 5.9%
Whole Foods (WFMI) 7.5%
XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) 9.7%
Ford (F) 10.2%
Amazon.com (AMZN) 14.9%
Palm (PALM) 18.6%
Under Armour (UA) 28.0%
NutriSystem (NTRI) 33.2%
Crocs (CROX) 35.2%
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Sunday, January 24, 2010
朱德庸放牛吃草 獨子建中台大
【聯合報╱本報記者陳宛茜】
朱家教養方式獨樹一格，朱重威在同學眼中，也一直是個與眾不同的學生。朱德庸說，兒子的成長過程中，經常受到同儕的壓力，遭遇認同危機。這時夫妻倆會為孩子分析、給他信心。
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某年朱重威班上同學都在瘋電子寵物，老師不准他們把寵物機帶到課堂上。朱重威和同學一樣，把電子寵物交給老爸代養。沒想到他放學回家，卻發現老爸什麼都沒做，電子寵物也死了。
這是朱德庸教養孩子的方式，讓他明白「沒時間養，就不要養」，從中學會責任感。電子寵物死後，朱德庸還為孩子上堂「生命教育」，告訴孩子電子世界的虛幻，帶著他與大自然接觸，最後兒子不再迷戀電子寵物。
朱德庸認為，青少年養電子寵物、沉迷網咖，多半是因為「朋友都在玩」，未必是真心喜愛。「台灣父母如果肯在教養下工夫，小孩就不會盲目追求流行、陷入集體的狂熱。」朱德庸擔憂，這一代父母沒有告訴孩子「生命的基本價值」，讓他們明白虛擬世界的虛幻。
夫妻從小灌輸朱重威「不必為父母上課」、「長大做工人也沒關係」的觀念，被放牛吃草的朱重威卻一路考上建中、台大。
馮曼倫說，關鍵點在國中。朱重威原本讀公立國中，但她發現學校的政策是把每個人都當最後一名的學生來教，兒子上課輕鬆、卻學不到東西。夫妻花了很長時間告 訴他，若想成為自己想成為的人，必須培養什麼樣的競爭力。朱重威想了很久，決定轉學到壓力大的私立國中。後來他考上建中、甄試上台大昆蟲系，統統都是他自 己設定目標。
朱德庸說，兒子國、高中成績都不算理想，卻總能在最後關頭衝刺成功、念到心中的「第一志願」。「他總是比別人花更多時間確定目標，花更多時間尋找自己達到 目標的方式；但只要找到了，他就可以比別人更快到達。」朱德庸說，這是因為夫妻倆從小就教導兒子「做自己、為自己負責！」
律師的獨子──相當感人的真人故事
我的爸爸是任何人都會引以為榮的人。 他是位名律師，精通國際法，客戶全是大公司，因此收入相當好。 可是他卻常常替弱勢團體服務，替他們提供免費的服務。不僅如此也，他每週都有一天會去勵德補習班去替那些青少年受刑人補習功課，每次高中放榜的時候，他都會很緊張地注意有些受刑人榜上是否有名。 他的思路永遠是如此合乎邏輯，以至我從小就學會了他的那一套思維方式，也難怪每次我發言時常常會思路很清晰，老師們當然一直都喜歡我。 爸爸的書房裡放滿了書，一半是法律的，另一半是文學的，爸爸鼓勵我看那些經典名著。 我隱隱約約地感覺到爸爸要使我成為一位非常有教養的人，在爸爸的這種刻意安排之下，再笨的孩子也會有教養的。 爸爸來了，他的黑色大轎車直接開進了操場，爸爸和他的司機走下來抱我，我這才注意到司機也同樣穿著黑色的西裝，我得意得不得了，有這麼一位爸爸，真是幸福的事。 我提起社會公義的問題，爸爸沒有和我辯論，只說社會該講公義，更該講寬恕。他說：我們都有希望別人寬恕我們的可能'。 我想起爸爸也曾做過法官，就順口問他有沒有判個任何人死刑 ？ 他簡直變成了老闆娘的奴工，在盛怒之下，打死了老闆娘。我是主審法官，將他判了死刑。 事 後，這位犯人在監獄裡信奉了宗教，從各種跡象來看，他已是個好人，因此我四處去替他求情，希望他能得到特赦，免於死刑，可是沒有成功。他被判刑以後，太太 替他生了個活潑可愛的兒子，我在監獄探訪他的時候，看到了這個初生嬰兒的照片，想到他將成為孤兒，也使我傷感不已，由於他已成另一個好人，我對我判的死刑 痛悔不已。 他臨刑之前，我收到一封信。 我有一個不情之請，請你照顧我的兒子，使他脫離無知和貧窮的環境，讓他從小就接受良好的教育，求求你幫助他成為一個有教養的人，再也不能讓他像我這樣，糊裡糊塗地浪費了一生。 ＸＸＸ敬上 我對這個孩子大為好奇，爸爸你怎麼樣照顧他的孤兒，爸爸說：我收養了他。 一瞬間，世界全變了。 這不是我的爸爸，他是殺我爸爸的兇手，子報父仇，殺人者死。 我跳了起來，只要我輕輕一推，爸爸就會粉身碎骨地跌到懸崖下面去。 可是我的親生父親已經寬恕了判他死刑的人，坐在這裡的，是個好人，他對他自已判人死刑的事情，始終耿耿於懷，我的親生父親悔改以後，仍被處決，是社會的錯，我沒有權利再犯這種錯誤。 如果我的親生父親在場，他會希望我怎麼辦 ？ 爸爸站了起來，我看到他眼旁的淚水，兒子，謝謝你，沒有想到你這麼快就原諒了我。 我發現我自己的眼光也因淚水而有點模糊，可是我的話卻非常清晰 ：「爸爸，我是你的兒子，謝謝你將我養大成人。」 而我呢？我自已覺得我又高大、又強壯，我已長大了。 只有成熟的人，才會寬恕別人，才能享受到寬恕以後而來的平安，小孩子是不會懂這些的。 我的親生父親，你可以安息了。 你的兒子已經長大成人， 我今天所做的事，一定是你所喜歡的 。 還記得小時候一件轟動社會的山地青年殺死雇主的案子嗎？ 如 果我沒記錯，那位山地青年應該叫做湯英申，純樸的山地青年來到繁華的台北打工，碰了惡劣的雇主，不僅壓榨勞力還剝奪自由，在受盡各種不平等的待遇後，選擇 了採取最激烈的行動以示抗議，雖然手段並不正確，但卻情有可原，死刑或能嚇阻犯罪，但對於一個走投無路且深具悔意的人來說或許太沉重了，雖然社會各界的呼 籲請求，希望獲得特赦，但仍免不了這樣的結局，故事的結局雖然令人遺憾；但事隔近二十年後，卻有如此令人驚喜的發展，這不為人知的一幕，包含了多少的寬容 與救贖，我想這就是所謂的大愛吧！
我是獨子，當然是三仟寵愛在一身，爸爸沒有慣壞我，可是他給我的實在太多了。
我們家很寬敞，也佈置得極為優雅。爸爸的書房是清一色的深色傢俱、深色的書架、深色的橡木牆壁、大型的深色書桌、書桌上造型古雅的燈，爸爸每天晚上都要在他書桌上處理一些公事，我小時常乘機進去玩。
爸爸有時也會解釋給我聽他處理某些案件的邏輯。
因為他常出國，我很小就去外國看過世界著名的博物館。
我在唸小學的時候，有一天在操場上摔得頭破血流。老師打電話告訴了我爸爸。
我現在是大學生了，當然一個月才會和爸媽渡一個週未。前幾天放春假，爸爸叫我去墾丁，在那裡我家有一個別墅。爸爸邀我去沿著海邊散步，太陽快下山了，爸爸在一個懸崖旁邊坐下休息。
他忽然提到最近被槍決的劉煥榮，爸爸說他非常反對死刑，死刑犯雖然從前曾做過壞事，可是他後來已是手無寸鐵之人，而且有些死刑犯後來完全改過遷善，被槍決的人，往往是個好人
爸爸說：我判過一次死刑，犯人是一位年青的原住民，沒有什麼常識，他在台北打工的時候，身份証被老闆娘扣住了，其實這是不合法的，任何人不得扣留其他人的身份証。
爸爸從口袋中，拿出一張已經變黃的信紙，一言不發地遞給了我。
信是這樣寫的：
法官大人：
謝謝你替我做的種種努力，看來我快走了，可是我會永遠感謝你的。
我蹲了下來，輕輕地對爸爸說：「爸爸，天快黑 了，我們回去吧！媽媽在等我們。」
海邊這時正好刮起了墾丁常有的落山風，爸爸忽然顯得有些虛弱，我扶著他，在落日的餘暉下，向遠處的燈光頂著大風走回去，荒野裡只有我們父子二人。
我以我死去的生父為榮，他心胸寬大到可以寬恕判他死刑的人。
我以我的爸爸為榮，他對判人死刑，一直感到良心不安，他已盡了他的責任，將我養大成人，甚至對我可能結束他的生命，都有了準備。
---------感言--------
各位朋友：
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