資本迴圈
出自 MBA智库百科(http://wiki.mbalib.com/)
資本迴圈(circuit of capital)
目錄
[隱藏]
* 1 什麼是資本迴圈
* 2 產業資本迴圈的三個階段
* 3 資本迴圈的職能形式及職能
* 4 資本迴圈的條件
* 5 資本迴圈理論對現代企業經營的啟示
[編輯]
什麼是資本迴圈
資本迴圈指產業資本從一定的職能形式出發，順次經過購買、生產、銷售三個階段，分別地採取貨幣資本、生產資本、商品資本三種職能形式，實現了價值的增殖，並回到原來出發點的全過程。這一過程可用公式表示為：
Pm G-W <…P…W′-G′A
[編輯]
產業資本迴圈的三個階段
從上述公式中我們可以看出，產業資本在其迴圈過程中要順次經過三個階段：購買（G-W）、生產（…P…）、銷售（W′-G′）。其中，第一、三兩個階段屬於流通過程，第二階段屬於生產過程。
[編輯]
資本迴圈的職能形式及職能
產業資本迴圈的三種職能形式及其各自的職能在產業資本迴圈的全過程中，產業資本在三個不同的階段需要採取三種不同的職能形式，並執行相應的職能。具體來看：
（1）貨幣資本（G），其職能是購買生產資料和勞動力，為剩餘價值生產準備必要的條件。
（2）生產資本（W），其職能是生產剩餘價值。
（3）商品資本（W′），其職能是實現剩餘價值。
[編輯]
資本迴圈的條件
產業資本迴圈順利進行的必要條件產業資本迴圈要保持連續性，必須具備兩個條件：
第一，空間上的並存性，資本的三種職能形式在空間上同時並存。全部資本必須按一定比例分成三個部分，分別同時存在於三種職能形式上。
第二時間上的繼起性，資本三種職能形式在時間上相互繼起。即分別處在每種職能形式上的資本，都必須相繼進行轉化，依次從一個階段轉向下一個階段，從一種職能形式轉向下一種職能形式，經過迴圈回到它原來的出發點，連續不斷地運動。
[編輯]
資本迴圈理論對現代企業經營的啟示
一、馬克思資本迴圈理論的基本內容
資本只有經過不斷的運動，才能實現增值。資本的迴圈是資本運動最簡單、最基本的形式。在運動的總過程中，資本要實現增值，必須依次經歷購買階段、生產階段和售賣階段三個階段，依次採取貨幣資本、生產資本和商品資本三種職能形式，最後實現價值的增值。
1、資本迴圈的三個階段和三種職能形式
第一階段：購買階段，即資本所有者以購買者的身份出現在市場上，用貨幣購買商品——生產資料和勞動力，為剩餘價值的生產做準備。這一階段用公式表示為：G-W＝A＋Pm，其中，G代表貨幣，W代表商品，A代表勞動力，Pm代表生產資料。
從形式上來看，買者把他的貨幣轉化為商品，而賣者則把他們的商品轉化為貨幣，貨幣執行的是一般商品流通職能。實質上這裡的貨幣同時具有資本的職能。因為資本所有者購買的不是一般的商品，而是生產資本——勞動力是生產剩餘價值的條件，而生產資料是生產剩餘價值的手段。所以，在G-W中，G作為貨幣資本執行著資本的職能，貨幣資本的職能就是購買生產資料和勞動力，為生產剩餘價值做準備。當這一階段完成後，資本運動就進入第二階段，貨幣資本轉化為生產資本。
第二階段：生產階段，即資本所有者以生產組織者身份，把購買的生產資料和勞動力結合起來進行生產，生產出包含剩餘價值的商品，用公式表示為W＝A＋Pm……P……W'，其中，P代表生產，虛線表示流通過程的中斷，W'代表包含剩餘價值的商品資本。
在這裡，生產資料和勞動力不僅發揮著一般生產要素的作用，而且發揮著資本的作用。通過生產過程，資本由生產資本的要素形式變成商品資本形式。這些商品與原有的商品相比，不僅在物質形態上發生變化，而且在價值量上也發生了變化，包含了工人剩餘勞動創造的剩餘價值。所以，這一階段是產業資本全部運動過程中具有決定意義的階段。
第三階段：售賣階段，即資本所有者又以商品出售者的身份回到市場，把新商品銷售出去，收回包含剩餘價值在內的一定數量的貨幣，用公式表示為W'-G'.經過售賣階段，資本不僅發生了從商品形式向貨幣形式的轉化，更重要的是使資本的價值和剩餘價值得到了實現。這個階段是商品資本轉化為貨幣資本的階段，商品資本的職能就是實現價值和剩餘價值。
商品資本能否完成W'-G'過程，對資本的迴圈具有非常重要的作用。因為，在生產過程中，只有完成W'-G'過程，資本家收回貨幣，資本的迴圈過程才能繼續。因此，商品資本要實現自己的職能，必須將它的商品形式全部轉化為貨幣資本形式。也正因如此，馬克思把這一過程稱為“驚險的跳躍”。
由以上可以看到，資本必須依次經過購買、生產、銷售三個階段，分別採取貨幣資本、生產資本和商品資本三種職能形式，不斷地迴圈運動，才能使價值增值，這就是資本迴圈的過程，用公式表示是G-W＝A＋Pm...P...W’-G’(G+g)。其中，購買階段和售賣階段屬於流通領域，生產階段屬於生產領域。可見，產業資本迴圈是生產過程與流通過程的統一。在這個運動中，預付資本的價值不僅保存了，而且它的量也增加了。
2、資本迴圈連續進行的必要條件
產業資本只有在不斷運動中才能實現價值增值。為了不斷地獲得剩餘價值，產業資本不能經過一次迴圈之後終止自己的運動，而必須把這種迴圈運動不停頓地進行下去。因此，產業資本迴圈就是一個無止境的周而複始的運動過程，這一過程可以用公式表示：
Image:资本循环的公式表示.jpg
從這個公式中可以看到，產業資本在不斷迴圈的過程中，它的每一種職能形式都要經過迴圈的三個階段，進行迴圈運動，才能實現價值的增值。要保持資本運動的連續性，就必須使產業資本滿足兩個條件。
（1）空間上並存性。指資本所有者必須按照一定比例把資本分成三個部分，使其同時並存於貨幣資本、生產資本和商品資本三種形式上。如果全部資本都處在生產資本形態上，流通過程就會中斷；如果全部資本都處在貨幣資本和商品資本形態上，生產過程就會中斷。無論流通過程還是生產過程的中斷，都會造成資本運動過程的中斷，而運動一停止，也就停止了價值的增值。
（2）時間上繼起性。指資本必須相繼地通過迴圈的三個階段，即貨幣資本要不斷轉化為生產資本，再轉化為商品資本，最後回到貨幣資本形式上；生產資本要不斷轉化為商品資本，再轉化為貨幣資本，最後又回到生產資本形式上；商品資本要不斷轉化為貨幣資本，再轉化為生產資本，最後又回到商品資本形式上來。如果其中有一個階段中斷，資本迴圈就不能順利進行下去。這樣三種資本形態都依次經過三個階段並依次相繼轉化，就能保證購買、生產和售賣每一個階段上，隨時都有相應的資本在執行職能，從而使資本迴圈不至於中斷。
資本在空間上並存與時間上繼起是互為前提、互為條件。假設預付資本9萬元，平均分配在三種職能形式上，那麼這三種迴圈“連續、併列”的統一性，可用如下的“風扇”圖來描述：
Image:资本循环.jpg
從圖中可以看到，產業資本迴圈中任何一個環節出現問題，再生產就可能中斷，資本運動的連續性就遭到破壞，剩餘價值就難以產生和實現。所以，要保持資本運動的連續性，產業資本的三種形式就必須在空間上並存，必須在時間上繼起。正如馬克思所指出的：“產業資本的連續進行的現實迴圈，不僅是流通和生產過程的統一，而且是它的所有三種迴圈的統一。”
二、資本迴圈理論對現代企業經營的啟示
1、要協調好購、產、銷的關係
社會主義市場經濟條件下，任何資本的目標首先是追求最大限度的利潤，這是搞活企業的關鍵所在。而資本只有不停地運動才能實現價值增值。產業資本要經歷購買、生產、銷售三個階段，這是企業進行經濟活動必須遵循的共同規律，資本迴圈的三個階段和三種職能形式是緊密聯繫、相互依存的。資本只有不斷地從一個階段轉到另一階段，迴圈運動才能順利進行。如果在第一階段發生困難，購買不到生產資料和勞動力，貨幣資本就會成為貯藏貨幣，不能發揮資本職能；如果在第二階段發生停滯，生產無法進行，剩餘價值無法生產出來；如果商品賣不出去，完不成“驚險的跳躍”，受傷的不是商品，肯定是商品生產者，他不能獲得利潤。所以在資本迴圈中每一環節都是重要的，任一環節的中斷都會導致迴圈的中止而不能帶來利潤。
現代企業在生產經營活動中要以市場為導向，按照購、產、銷的思路組織生產，協調好購、產、銷的關係，遵循空間上的並存性和時間上繼起性的原則，讓資本並存於三個階段，不停頓地由一種形式向下一種形式轉換，從而為企業帶來利潤。
2、要合理優化配置資源
馬克思在分析生產資本迴圈時指出，資本家運用生產資本就是根據資本家的意願，使勞動力和生產資料按一定的數量比例和兩者的質量進行結合，這是資本迴圈具有決定意義的階段。現代企業在進行生產活動時也不例外，在生產活動中要合理優化配置資源，購置的生產資料和招收的工人在量上要有恰當的比例，與技術構成相適應。因為如果勞動力多於生產資料的需要量，必然造成人浮於事，冗員增加；如果勞動力少於生產資料的需要量；必然造成開工不足，設備閑置。所以，在勞動力和生產資料的配置上應該符合技術構成，優化配置資源。同時要做到科技進步與科學管理在生產過程中合二為一，建立良好的激勵機制。人是主動資產，在生產中充分調動生產者勞動積極性，能充分發揮資源最大的潛能，從而形成一個良性迴圈。
3、要重視流通環節，加強成本核算
在資本迴圈中，購買原材料和銷售商品處於流通領域，儘管剩餘價值不是在這兩個過程生產，但卻是價值實現的過程。這一過程在企業生產經營中同樣具有重要的意義。現代企業要加速資本的迴圈，就要縮短流通時間、減少流通費用，搞好合同生產。作為世界第四大白色家電製造商、中國電子信息百強企業之首的海爾集團就十分重視流通環節。海爾集團在1998年推出“業務流程再造工程”，從採購和銷售兩個環節入手，將原有的各自採購統一為集團統一採購。僅此一項，在1999 年降低了5億元的採購成本，2001年又在1999年基礎上降低了10億。在買方市場條件下，一般買易賣難，海爾抓住這一特點，減少庫存面積和庫存量，在海爾開發區物流中心，其零配件倉庫庫存面積減少了32萬平方面積，原材料只有不到7天的庫存，成品在24小時內發往各配送中心。所以，海爾呆滯物質降低了 90%，減少了資金積壓。一般企業從接到訂單到組織採購、製造到配送全過程需要36天，海爾集團向速度要效益，只需10天時間，實現與商家之間現款現貨。目前海爾國內應收賬款幾乎為零。
資本迴圈理論告訴我們，一個迴圈的終點又是另一個迴圈的起點。也就是說，沒有消費就沒有生產。現代企業以贏利為目的，而只有商品適銷對路才能贏利。所以，現代企業要把握市場脈搏，選好投資方向，使產品適應市場的需要，這樣才能使商品資本順利地轉化為貨幣。所以，現代企業要重視流通環節，加強成本核算，降低成本，獲得儘可能多的利潤。
三、結論
從以上的分析可以看到，馬克思的資本迴圈理論以產業資本為例，分析了資本要增值，必須不斷運動的特征，同時提出要使資本不斷地運動，就必須滿足空間上並存與時間上繼起的條件。這一理論對於現代企業資本運營有著重要的啟示作用，這就是：現代企業在生產經營中要重視運動的每一環節，加強成本核算，優化配置資源，協調好購、產、銷三環節的關係，使資本處於不斷的運動中，從而不斷地吸收活勞動，以實現價值的增值。
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
2010 Top 10 Wealth Creators and Destroyers
From: http://seekingalpha.com/article/236041-2010-top-10-wealth-creators-and-destroyers?source=yahoo
Now in its third year, the wealth creation index developed by Chief Executive, The Applied Finance Group and Great Numbers!, attempts to identify those business leaders who have performed best in creating true economic value—as opposed to mere accounting value—as measured by GAAP metrics (click here to view complete list of companies and their respective rankings). Creating value is, after all, why CEOs do what they do. The WCI leans heavily on the concept of economic margin (EM). (EM measures the degree to which a company makes money in excess of its risk-adjusted cost of capital.) While there is no single metric that is perfect, EM comes close, in that it isn't dependent on share price in assessing management's impact on value creation. (The rankings do not include REITs among the S&P 500 and only assess companies whose CEO has been in the job for at least three years in order to get a fair appraisal of its actions under varying conditions.
click to enlarge
The past 12 months have not been an easy time to grow—or for companies with high levels of EM to maintain them. The more profitable a company is, the more difficult it is to maintain high levels of profitability when competitors step up and target market leaders. Some companies find that the "easy money"—high margins on a product or market—ultimately dries up. Also, if a business model is successful and a company is making healthy profits, it becomes a target.
Similarly, the regulatory environment can make it difficult for companies to maneuver. Both financial and healthcare companies have become the worst-performing sectors over the last 12 months. Even the well-managed ones struggle with maintaining past success. For example, Mastercard (MA), which led the rankings last year, couldn't maintain its change in EM momentum and slipped to No. 24, still a respectable score. Federated Investors (FII), however, has consistently stayed in the top three since the WCI's inception.
In entering the S&P 500 this year, Priceline.com (PCLN) vaulted to the top of this year's rankings. The company's EM had been dragged down in earlier years, but was consistently high in more recent years. It has also had tremendous success in moving its U.S. business model to international markets, with non-U.S. revenue doubling last year to top U.S. revenue. In addition, Priceline kept its operating costs in check, limiting them to 20 percent of year-on-year growth while pursuing an industry-leading growth in revenues of 27 percent. This allowed the firm to take market share from Expedia (EXPE), another high scorer. Because the company offers a commodity product in a cutthroat industry marked by extreme ease of entry, it's difficult to assess whether Priceline can maintain its high-wire act. CEO Jeffrey Boyd says,
The most important metric we use is gross bookings growth, which refers to the overall value of all the travel products we sell. The Internet and online travel are still in their infancy in many parts of the world. As a global business, our focus is on increasing overall sales and building our market share. We also look to maintain or improve our net operating margins so we can grow profitably. When interim results don't match expectations, our management team evaluates whether it is a supply, marketing or cost issue and makes adjustments accordingly.
As the online travel market grows more saturated it will be more difficult to differentiate. But Priceline enjoys a healthy balance sheet and has slightly less cash than debt, so it gets high marks for managing growth and profitability.
Other stellar wealth creators include Jeffrey Bezos of Amazon (AMZN) and Douglas Baker of Ecolab (ECL), both of whom return to the top 10 from last year, showing that strong execution skills translate into wealth-creating staying power. Daniel Amos of Aflac (AFL), Steve Jobs of Apple (AAPL), Ian Cook of Colgate-Palmolive (CL), John Wiehoff of C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) and Daniel Hambuger of DeVry (DV) return in 2010 among the high scorers. David Yost of Amerisource Bergen (ABC), Theodore Solso of Cummins (CMI), Gregory Johnson of Franklin Resources (BEN), Mark Templeton of Citrix Systems (CTXS), Chris Begley of Hospira (HSP) and James Rohr of PNC Financial (PNC) were among the leaders who advanced at least 100 positions in ranks since 2009.
Less stellar performances were logged by Windstream's (WIN) Jeffrey Gardner, ConAgra's (CAG) Gary Rodkin and FirstEnergy's (FE) Anthony Alexander, who are all among those who dropped more than 100 places since last year.
Ranking CEO Wealth Creation
The top 50 companies in the ranking delivered an average total shareholder return (TSR) of 73.3 percent between January 2007 and June 2010
The ranking focuses on the performance of companies (and their CEOs) in the S&P 500 index for the three years that ended on June 30, 2010. It's based on reported results during that period and estimates for the next 12 months.
CEOs whose tenure did not cover the full three years were not ranked. Also not ranked are the 14 REITs in the 2010 S&P 500 and the companies for which a full three years of financial results were not available.
The four components of the ranking, explained below, were developed and calculated by the Applied Finance Group (AFG), an independent equityresearch advisory firm using proprietary metrics and data. A weighted combination of each company's component rankings is used to produce an overall score: 100 is awarded to the best wealth creator; 1 to the worst. (The list itself casts these scores as a sequential ranking.) The component rankings are shown as letter grades with companies in the top 20 percent of each sector receiving an A; the bottom 20 percent receiving an F.
Market (or Enterprise) Value/Invested Capital (MV/IC)
This measure shows the degree to which investors value the company's assets, relative to their cost. Market value is what a buyer would have to pay to buy the company outright; that is, to purchase all the stock and pay off all the loans, leases and other obligations. Note that market value depends on the stock price. Invested capital is the inflation-adjusted total of all of the investments in the business. It does not depend on the stock price. So by its nature, MV/IC reflects the market's take on the value of the investments made in the business.
The Average of the Past Three Years' Economic Margins
Economic margin (EM) measures the degree to which the company is making money in excess of its risk-adjusted capital cost. It's expressed as a percentage of invested capital. EM is calculated as (operating cash flow - capital charge)/invested capital. Companies with positive EM (greater than 0 percent) are creating wealth; those with negative EM are destroying it.
EM Change
This is a 12-month forecast, based on the ratio of the most recent EM to the three-year average.
Management Quality
This AFG-proprietary measure rewards a company with positive EM for increasing its asset base, and penalizes one with negative EM for growing its asset base. In other words, if a company is making money and it adds assets in such a way that it can make even more, that's good. So is selling off a money-losing division. That said, it's also valid that adding scale can dramatically increase profitability in a business with high fixed costs.
A Validity Check on the Ranking Method
The top 50 companies in the ranking delivered an average total shareholder return (TSR) of 73.3 percent between January 2007 and June 2010 (the period covered in the reported financials). The bottom 50 companies' TSR averaged -3.4 percent, while the S&P 500's average was 14.9 percent (without its 14 REITs). The top 50's median TSR was 33 percent; the bottom 50's was 9.5 percent.
As the table above shows, the top 50 companies in the wealth-creation ranking far outperformed the bottom 50 companies and the S&P 500. Note: Total shareholder return equals share-price return plus reinvested dividends.
Click here to view complete list of companies and their respective rankings
How to Move Up in the Rankings
In publishing this list, Chief Executive aims to show CEOs both where they stand with respect to their peers (awareness being the mother of improvement) and to make clear how to go about improving one's standing. Improvement will require several actions that the company's CEO, division heads and general managers can take:
At the corporate level:
• Use EM to measure wealth creation throughout the company.
• Manage your portfolio of businesses from a wealth-creation perspective. This includes opportunity sensing—entering lucrative or fast-growing businesses, as well as putting businesses making sub-par contributions into other hands or shuttering them. Set the contribution hurdle rate to maximize economic-value creation.
• Ensure that the company's capital structure is right. This affects the capital charge and invested capital. Equity is more expensive than debt, but too much debt can kill a company.
• Avoid overpaying for acquisitions or buying back stock at its peaks.
At the business unit level:
The general managers of businesses need to find the best things they can do to boost operating results. (See "Leading Your Business to Maximum Results" (CE Jan/Feb 2008).
At all levels:
Get all you can out of your assets. Example: large software companies (IBM, Oracle (ORCL) and others) have been acquiring other software firms so that their sales forces, which are major leverageable assets, have more offerings to sell to customers. Include all of your intangible assets, not just intellectual property, in your thinking. Work hard to create and improve customers' feelings about your company and its offerings, the promises your brands represent, your value propositions, etc. (For more, see "The Economic Stimulus Package Inside Every Business," CE Online Jan/Feb 2009, and "Do Intangibles Matter?", CE July/August 2008).
Finally, manage internal and external risks across the company and its aggregate risk-reward profile by taking a wide-angle lens to what could happen.
—Drew Morris
Disclosure: None
About the author: Value Expectations
Now in its third year, the wealth creation index developed by Chief Executive, The Applied Finance Group and Great Numbers!, attempts to identify those business leaders who have performed best in creating true economic value—as opposed to mere accounting value—as measured by GAAP metrics (click here to view complete list of companies and their respective rankings). Creating value is, after all, why CEOs do what they do. The WCI leans heavily on the concept of economic margin (EM). (EM measures the degree to which a company makes money in excess of its risk-adjusted cost of capital.) While there is no single metric that is perfect, EM comes close, in that it isn't dependent on share price in assessing management's impact on value creation. (The rankings do not include REITs among the S&P 500 and only assess companies whose CEO has been in the job for at least three years in order to get a fair appraisal of its actions under varying conditions.
click to enlarge
The past 12 months have not been an easy time to grow—or for companies with high levels of EM to maintain them. The more profitable a company is, the more difficult it is to maintain high levels of profitability when competitors step up and target market leaders. Some companies find that the "easy money"—high margins on a product or market—ultimately dries up. Also, if a business model is successful and a company is making healthy profits, it becomes a target.
Similarly, the regulatory environment can make it difficult for companies to maneuver. Both financial and healthcare companies have become the worst-performing sectors over the last 12 months. Even the well-managed ones struggle with maintaining past success. For example, Mastercard (MA), which led the rankings last year, couldn't maintain its change in EM momentum and slipped to No. 24, still a respectable score. Federated Investors (FII), however, has consistently stayed in the top three since the WCI's inception.
In entering the S&P 500 this year, Priceline.com (PCLN) vaulted to the top of this year's rankings. The company's EM had been dragged down in earlier years, but was consistently high in more recent years. It has also had tremendous success in moving its U.S. business model to international markets, with non-U.S. revenue doubling last year to top U.S. revenue. In addition, Priceline kept its operating costs in check, limiting them to 20 percent of year-on-year growth while pursuing an industry-leading growth in revenues of 27 percent. This allowed the firm to take market share from Expedia (EXPE), another high scorer. Because the company offers a commodity product in a cutthroat industry marked by extreme ease of entry, it's difficult to assess whether Priceline can maintain its high-wire act. CEO Jeffrey Boyd says,
The most important metric we use is gross bookings growth, which refers to the overall value of all the travel products we sell. The Internet and online travel are still in their infancy in many parts of the world. As a global business, our focus is on increasing overall sales and building our market share. We also look to maintain or improve our net operating margins so we can grow profitably. When interim results don't match expectations, our management team evaluates whether it is a supply, marketing or cost issue and makes adjustments accordingly.
As the online travel market grows more saturated it will be more difficult to differentiate. But Priceline enjoys a healthy balance sheet and has slightly less cash than debt, so it gets high marks for managing growth and profitability.
Other stellar wealth creators include Jeffrey Bezos of Amazon (AMZN) and Douglas Baker of Ecolab (ECL), both of whom return to the top 10 from last year, showing that strong execution skills translate into wealth-creating staying power. Daniel Amos of Aflac (AFL), Steve Jobs of Apple (AAPL), Ian Cook of Colgate-Palmolive (CL), John Wiehoff of C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) and Daniel Hambuger of DeVry (DV) return in 2010 among the high scorers. David Yost of Amerisource Bergen (ABC), Theodore Solso of Cummins (CMI), Gregory Johnson of Franklin Resources (BEN), Mark Templeton of Citrix Systems (CTXS), Chris Begley of Hospira (HSP) and James Rohr of PNC Financial (PNC) were among the leaders who advanced at least 100 positions in ranks since 2009.
Less stellar performances were logged by Windstream's (WIN) Jeffrey Gardner, ConAgra's (CAG) Gary Rodkin and FirstEnergy's (FE) Anthony Alexander, who are all among those who dropped more than 100 places since last year.
Ranking CEO Wealth Creation
The top 50 companies in the ranking delivered an average total shareholder return (TSR) of 73.3 percent between January 2007 and June 2010
The ranking focuses on the performance of companies (and their CEOs) in the S&P 500 index for the three years that ended on June 30, 2010. It's based on reported results during that period and estimates for the next 12 months.
CEOs whose tenure did not cover the full three years were not ranked. Also not ranked are the 14 REITs in the 2010 S&P 500 and the companies for which a full three years of financial results were not available.
The four components of the ranking, explained below, were developed and calculated by the Applied Finance Group (AFG), an independent equityresearch advisory firm using proprietary metrics and data. A weighted combination of each company's component rankings is used to produce an overall score: 100 is awarded to the best wealth creator; 1 to the worst. (The list itself casts these scores as a sequential ranking.) The component rankings are shown as letter grades with companies in the top 20 percent of each sector receiving an A; the bottom 20 percent receiving an F.
Market (or Enterprise) Value/Invested Capital (MV/IC)
This measure shows the degree to which investors value the company's assets, relative to their cost. Market value is what a buyer would have to pay to buy the company outright; that is, to purchase all the stock and pay off all the loans, leases and other obligations. Note that market value depends on the stock price. Invested capital is the inflation-adjusted total of all of the investments in the business. It does not depend on the stock price. So by its nature, MV/IC reflects the market's take on the value of the investments made in the business.
The Average of the Past Three Years' Economic Margins
Economic margin (EM) measures the degree to which the company is making money in excess of its risk-adjusted capital cost. It's expressed as a percentage of invested capital. EM is calculated as (operating cash flow - capital charge)/invested capital. Companies with positive EM (greater than 0 percent) are creating wealth; those with negative EM are destroying it.
EM Change
This is a 12-month forecast, based on the ratio of the most recent EM to the three-year average.
Management Quality
This AFG-proprietary measure rewards a company with positive EM for increasing its asset base, and penalizes one with negative EM for growing its asset base. In other words, if a company is making money and it adds assets in such a way that it can make even more, that's good. So is selling off a money-losing division. That said, it's also valid that adding scale can dramatically increase profitability in a business with high fixed costs.
A Validity Check on the Ranking Method
The top 50 companies in the ranking delivered an average total shareholder return (TSR) of 73.3 percent between January 2007 and June 2010 (the period covered in the reported financials). The bottom 50 companies' TSR averaged -3.4 percent, while the S&P 500's average was 14.9 percent (without its 14 REITs). The top 50's median TSR was 33 percent; the bottom 50's was 9.5 percent.
As the table above shows, the top 50 companies in the wealth-creation ranking far outperformed the bottom 50 companies and the S&P 500. Note: Total shareholder return equals share-price return plus reinvested dividends.
Click here to view complete list of companies and their respective rankings
How to Move Up in the Rankings
In publishing this list, Chief Executive aims to show CEOs both where they stand with respect to their peers (awareness being the mother of improvement) and to make clear how to go about improving one's standing. Improvement will require several actions that the company's CEO, division heads and general managers can take:
At the corporate level:
• Use EM to measure wealth creation throughout the company.
• Manage your portfolio of businesses from a wealth-creation perspective. This includes opportunity sensing—entering lucrative or fast-growing businesses, as well as putting businesses making sub-par contributions into other hands or shuttering them. Set the contribution hurdle rate to maximize economic-value creation.
• Ensure that the company's capital structure is right. This affects the capital charge and invested capital. Equity is more expensive than debt, but too much debt can kill a company.
• Avoid overpaying for acquisitions or buying back stock at its peaks.
At the business unit level:
The general managers of businesses need to find the best things they can do to boost operating results. (See "Leading Your Business to Maximum Results" (CE Jan/Feb 2008).
At all levels:
Get all you can out of your assets. Example: large software companies (IBM, Oracle (ORCL) and others) have been acquiring other software firms so that their sales forces, which are major leverageable assets, have more offerings to sell to customers. Include all of your intangible assets, not just intellectual property, in your thinking. Work hard to create and improve customers' feelings about your company and its offerings, the promises your brands represent, your value propositions, etc. (For more, see "The Economic Stimulus Package Inside Every Business," CE Online Jan/Feb 2009, and "Do Intangibles Matter?", CE July/August 2008).
Finally, manage internal and external risks across the company and its aggregate risk-reward profile by taking a wide-angle lens to what could happen.
—Drew Morris
Disclosure: None
About the author: Value Expectations
メロディー(Melody)
あんなにも好きだった
君がいたこの街に
今もまだ大好きな
あの歌は闻こえてるよ
いつも优しくて
少し寂しくて
あのころは何もなくて
それだって楽しくやったよ
メロディ泣きながら・・・
仆たちはしあわせを见つめてたよ
懐かしいこの店の
隅っこに置いてある
寄せ书きの端の方
君と书いたピースマーク
みんな集まって泣いて歌ってたね
あのころは何もなくて
それだだって楽しくやったよ
メロディいつの间に・・・
大切な物无くした
あのころは何もなくて
それだって楽しくやったよ
メロディ泣きながら・・・
远い空流されても
君のこと忘れないよ
いつだって楽しくやったよ
メロディ泣かないで・・・
あの歌は心から闻こえてるよ
夏末的合声 (夏の终わりのハーモニー)
今日のささやきと 昨日の争う声が 二人だけの恋のハーモニー
梦もあこがれも どこか违っているけど それが仆と君のハーモニー
今天的甜言蜜语, 昨日的争争吵吵, 都是二人世界的合声
梦想和憧憬 多少有些不同 但这是我们两个人吧
夜空をたださまようだけ 谁よりもあなたが好きだから
素敌な梦 あこがれを いつまでもずっと忘れずに
了望著夜空 旁徨著星光 我曾经那样爱著你 胜过任何人
即使我俩分开 也请别忘记 属於你的梦想和憧憬 永远永远
今夜のお别れに 最后の二人の歌は 夏の夜を饰るハーモニー
夏夜的合声 就是今晚我们分别前 最后的一首歌
夜空をたださまようだけ 星屑のあいだを揺れながら
二人の梦 あこがれを いつまでも ずっと思い出に
真夏の梦 あこがれを いつまでも ずっと忘れずに
了望著夜空 摇曳在星光碎片之中
我俩曾有的梦和憧憬 都会是宝贵的回忆
真夏的梦和憧憬 也请你 不要忘却 永远永远
翻译：小苏(http://djsu.blogbus.com/logs/29668274.html)
from: http://tieba.baidu.com/f?z=9766038&ct=335544320&lm=0&sc=0&rn=30&tn=baiduPostBrowser&word=%D3%F1%D6%C3%BA%C6%B6%FE&pn=30
井上陽水・安全地帯 (玉置浩二) -
Mr. Lonely
mr.lonely
こんな仆でもやれる事がある
顽张ってだめでなやんで
あせながしてできなくって
ばかなやつだってわらわれたって
泪こらえて
何もないけど
いつでものにさくはなように
君がやさしかったから仆は
げんきでいるから
どんな时にもどんな事にでも
人のきもちになって
この心がいたむなら
むだな事だっていわれたって
かまわないから
何もないけど
なかよくのにさくはなのように
君とくらしていたころを思って
げんきでいるから
むくわれない事が大いだろうけど
愿いをこめて
何もないけど
仆らわのにさくはなのように
风にふかれていたって
いつでもどんな时でも
何もないけど
君のためにのにさくはなのように
远くはなれていたって笑って
げんきでいるから
こんな仆でもやれる事がある
顽张ってだめでなやんで
あせながしてできなくって
ばかなやつだってわらわれたって
泪こらえて
何もないけど
いつでものにさくはなように
君がやさしかったから仆は
げんきでいるから
どんな时にもどんな事にでも
人のきもちになって
この心がいたむなら
むだな事だっていわれたって
かまわないから
何もないけど
なかよくのにさくはなのように
君とくらしていたころを思って
げんきでいるから
むくわれない事が大いだろうけど
愿いをこめて
何もないけど
仆らわのにさくはなのように
风にふかれていたって
いつでもどんな时でも
何もないけど
君のためにのにさくはなのように
远くはなれていたって笑って
げんきでいるから
あなたに
あなたに
Tonight 夜が
あなたをとてもやさしくする
どんなことばも
きこえないほどに
魅せられて
Tonight 热い
吐息が胸をほどいてゆく
ふたりいつでも
なぜ爱しいのに
ふるえてる
あなたは 心の中に
いま 何をみるの
悲しくさせるなら みつめない
あなたの绮丽な瞬きに Goodbye
Tonight 梦は
谁にも话してはいけない
いつかひとりで
眠れない夜に
思いだして
あなたに あげられるのは
もう ぬくもりだけ
ふたりでいるために ひとりきり
こんなにそばにいるというのに
悲しくさせるなら みつめない
あなたの绮丽な瞬きに Goodbye
悲しくさせるなら みつめない
あなたのその绮丽な瞬きに Goodbye
あなたの绮丽な瞬きに Good night
Tonight 夜が
あなたをとてもやさしくする
どんなことばも
きこえないほどに
魅せられて
Tonight 热い
吐息が胸をほどいてゆく
ふたりいつでも
なぜ爱しいのに
ふるえてる
あなたは 心の中に
いま 何をみるの
悲しくさせるなら みつめない
あなたの绮丽な瞬きに Goodbye
Tonight 梦は
谁にも话してはいけない
いつかひとりで
眠れない夜に
思いだして
あなたに あげられるのは
もう ぬくもりだけ
ふたりでいるために ひとりきり
こんなにそばにいるというのに
悲しくさせるなら みつめない
あなたの绮丽な瞬きに Goodbye
悲しくさせるなら みつめない
あなたのその绮丽な瞬きに Goodbye
あなたの绮丽な瞬きに Good night
梦の続き
From: http://tieba.baidu.com/f?kz=9766038
13楼
梦の続き (continuous dream)
梦の続きは こもれび 静（しず）かなあなたの 瞳（ひとみ）
远（とお）くで ピアノ が きこ えてる 青（あお）い
てちょうに はさんだ 真夏（まなつ）の ふたりの 写真（しゃしん）
やさしい 気持（きもち）が 风（かぜ） に なるとき
あなたが いる から いつも 暖（あたた）かい から
大切（たいせつ） なこ とが よく わ かる
夕暮（ゆうぐ）れ 思（おも）い出（で） 禁烟 の ゆびわ 捜（さが）した
あなたに にあった それだけで
あのひ そろい の ぼうし は どんな 町角（まちかど） に いても
一（ひと）つに 広（ひろ）がる 空（そら）を 知（し）って いた
あなたが いるから 今（いま）でも まぶしいから
寂（さみ）しかった 日々（ひび）も 忘（わす）れてく
Refrain 3:
あなたが いるから いつも 暖（あたた）かい から
何（なに）より も やさしく 暮（く）らしたい
Refrain 4:
どれほど 季节（きせつ） が どれほど めぐり来（き）ても
楽（たの）しかった 日々（ひび） を 忘（わす）れない
=============================
夢のつづきは こもれ陽
しずかな貴方の瞳
遠くで ピア-ノが 聞こえてる
あおい 手帖に はさんだ ま夏の二人の しゃしん
優しい 氣持ちが 風になる時
貴方がいるから いつも暖かいから
大切な事が よく分かる
夕暮れ 思い出 記念の指輪 探した
貴方に 似合った それだけで
あの日 そろいの星は
どんな町角に いても 一つに ひろがる空を知っていた
貴方が いるから いまでも まぶしいから
淋しかった 日日を 忘れてく
あなたが いるから いつも暖かいから
何より優しく 暮らしたい
どれほど 季節が どれほど めぐり來ても
樂しかった日日を 忘れない
Monday, November 8, 2010
Priceline Earnings: Likely to Beat Estimates, But May Disappoint on Revenue
Priceline (PCLN) reports earnings Monday after the bell. It has exceeded estimates almost every quarter. It would likely beat the $4.97 per share earnings estimate based on the year ago’s 2nd to 3rd quarter jump as provided in the chart below. (Chart from MSN Money)
click to enlarge
However, the $973.63 million in revenue may be hard to beat or meet based on last year’s 2nd to 3rd quarter as shown in the chart above.
That said, I would carefully watch PCLN. The odds are high that it will beat, but may disappoint on revenue. If it does beat, the stock has averaged a 15% jump in one day. However, even if it does miss, you can buy more shares. It is very likely that the stock will go higher in the long run.
Disclosure: None
==========================================
About Michael Bryant
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Investor. Mission: Help people make money. Degree: Chemistry from NC State University.
Over the last 9 years, I am 7-2. Over the 7 years, I was up 130%, 29%, 15%, 3%, 19%, 25%, 56% from 2001-2007 respectively. 2008 and 2009 were down years for me, averaging about a 39% annual loss.
I invest in all stocks. I don't agree that US stocks are the safest. Want a safe stock, try TEVA. It did not fall much, or at all, during the credit crisis. And generics are the future.
Anybody can make money. Don't let Wall Street analysts manipulate you. There analysis is good, but don't take everything they say.
Good luck investing, and I will do everything I can to make you money.
Oh, and I ...More invest in rather risky stocks with high potentials. If you are nearing retirement, I don't recommend you copy my portfolio. I will label my stocks with the risk/reward factor. I am adding a watch list with some stocks for retirement investors that I like. All watch list stocks are long term holdings.
Current holdings:
CCME (high risk/high reward)
URRE (high risk/high reward)
Watch list:
LVS (medium risk/high reward)
SAM (medium risk/high reward)
CMG (medium risk/high reward)
ZNH (medium risk/high reward)
RDY (medium risk/high reward)
YZC (low risk/high reward)
CF (low risk/high reward)
QCOR (low risk/high reward)
NVO (low risk/high reward)
BIDU (low risk/high reward)
PCLN (low risk/high reward)
CLF (low risk/medium reward)
AAPL (low risk/medium reward)
GOOG (low risk/medium reward)
TEVA (low risk/medium reward)
CIM (low risk/medium reward) - dividend stock
TNH (low risk/medium reward) - dividend stock
GOL (low risk/medium reward) - dividend stock
SID (low risk/medium reward) - dividend stock
WTU (high risk/high reward) - dividend stock
click to enlarge
However, the $973.63 million in revenue may be hard to beat or meet based on last year’s 2nd to 3rd quarter as shown in the chart above.
That said, I would carefully watch PCLN. The odds are high that it will beat, but may disappoint on revenue. If it does beat, the stock has averaged a 15% jump in one day. However, even if it does miss, you can buy more shares. It is very likely that the stock will go higher in the long run.
Disclosure: None
==========================================
About Michael Bryant
move to top
move up
move down
minimize
Investor. Mission: Help people make money. Degree: Chemistry from NC State University.
Over the last 9 years, I am 7-2. Over the 7 years, I was up 130%, 29%, 15%, 3%, 19%, 25%, 56% from 2001-2007 respectively. 2008 and 2009 were down years for me, averaging about a 39% annual loss.
I invest in all stocks. I don't agree that US stocks are the safest. Want a safe stock, try TEVA. It did not fall much, or at all, during the credit crisis. And generics are the future.
Anybody can make money. Don't let Wall Street analysts manipulate you. There analysis is good, but don't take everything they say.
Good luck investing, and I will do everything I can to make you money.
Oh, and I ...More invest in rather risky stocks with high potentials. If you are nearing retirement, I don't recommend you copy my portfolio. I will label my stocks with the risk/reward factor. I am adding a watch list with some stocks for retirement investors that I like. All watch list stocks are long term holdings.
Current holdings:
CCME (high risk/high reward)
URRE (high risk/high reward)
Watch list:
LVS (medium risk/high reward)
SAM (medium risk/high reward)
CMG (medium risk/high reward)
ZNH (medium risk/high reward)
RDY (medium risk/high reward)
YZC (low risk/high reward)
CF (low risk/high reward)
QCOR (low risk/high reward)
NVO (low risk/high reward)
BIDU (low risk/high reward)
PCLN (low risk/high reward)
CLF (low risk/medium reward)
AAPL (low risk/medium reward)
GOOG (low risk/medium reward)
TEVA (low risk/medium reward)
CIM (low risk/medium reward) - dividend stock
TNH (low risk/medium reward) - dividend stock
GOL (low risk/medium reward) - dividend stock
SID (low risk/medium reward) - dividend stock
WTU (high risk/high reward) - dividend stock
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